学龄人口变动对基础教育资源配置的影响及应对策略研究  

Impact of School-Age Population Changes on Basic Education Resource Allocation and Coping Strategies

作　　者：林楚汐 Lin Chuxi(Hunan University of Finance and Economics,Changsha 410205,China)

机构地区：[1]湖南财政经济学院,湖南长沙410205

出　　处：《教育理论与实践(新加坡)》2025年第1期65-72,共8页

摘　　要：本研究基于中国人口结构转型背景,系统分析了学龄人口变动对基础教育资源配置的影响机制及应对策略。通过整合第七次人口普查数据(2020)及教育统计年鉴(2015-2023),采用队列要素法预测显示:2025-2035年我国义务教育阶段学龄人口将缩减16.9%,但城镇化进程导致76.3%的减少量集中在农村,而东部城市群学龄人口仍保持年均1.2%增长。研究发现资源配置存在显著“时空差”——学校布局调整滞后人口变动3-5年,农村小规模学校生均成本达城镇3.2倍,而城镇学位缺口年均扩大7.8%。针对教师编制弹性不足(调整系数仅0.38)、财政转移支付边际效益递减等问题,提出构建“教育人口智能监测平台”、实施“教师编制银行“省级统筹、推行”教育用地红线”制度等创新策略。案例研究表明,深圳龙岗区学位供给改革可使大班额比例下降25.6个百分点,而甘肃临夏州小规模学校整合使生均成本降低41%。研究为优化教育资源时空配置、促进教育公平提供了理论和实践依据。This study systematically examines the impact of school-age population changes on basic education resource allocation and proposes countermeasures within China’s demographic transition context.Integrating data from the Seventh National Population Census(2020)and Education Statistical Yearbooks(2015-2023),cohort-component projections reveal that China’s compulsory education-age population will decrease by 16.9%during 2025-2035,with 76.3%of the reduction concentrated in rural areas while eastern urban clusters maintain 1.2%annual growth.Key findings include:(1)A 3-5 year time lag in school network adaptation,with per-student costs in rural small-scale schools reaching 3.2 times urban levels;(2)Urban seat shortages expanding annually by 7.8%;(3)Teacher staffing adjustment elasticity as low as 0.38.Innovative solutions feature:an intelligent population-education monitoring platform,provincial“teacher staffing banks,”and compulsory education land reserves.Case studies demonstrate Shenzhen’s Longgang District reduced oversized classes by 25.6 percentage points,while Gansu’s Linxia Prefecture cut per-student costs by 41%through school consolidation.The research provides theoretical and practical foundations for optimizing spatiotemporal resource allocation and advancing educational equity.

关 键 词：学龄人口变动 基础教育资源配置 城乡差异 教师编制弹性 教育财政 人口流动 

分 类 号：G63[文化科学—教育学]