促进还是抑制?“一带一路”倡议的环境效应——基于贸易隐含碳视角  

Enabler or Inhibitor?Evaluating the Environmental Impact of the Belt and Road Initiative:A Trade-Embodied Carbon Perspective

作　　者：杨来科[1] 刘荣洋 YANG Lai-ke;LIU Rong-yang

机构地区：[1]华东师范大学经济与管理学院

出　　处：《产经评论》2025年第1期147-160,共14页Industrial Economic Review

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目“碳中和、碳达峰约束下中国的全球价值链地位与贸易结构优化研究”(项目编号:22AGJ009,主持人:杨来科)。

摘　　要：“一带一路”倡议加强了中国与区域内国家的经贸联系,成为推动中国外贸高质量发展的重要动力之一,而其对中国出口贸易隐含碳的影响尚待进一步探究。构建双重差分模型分析“一带一路”倡议对中国出口贸易隐含碳的影响并识别潜在的中间机制。结果显示:(1)“一带一路”倡议拉动的出口扩张会使中国对沿线国家的出口贸易隐含碳增长。(2)在影响机制方面,“一带一路”倡议主要通过规模效应、技术效应等渠道影响中国对沿线国家的出口贸易隐含碳。(3)异质性分析表明,“一带一路”倡议对中国向海上丝绸之路国家以及邻近“一带一路”沿线国家的出口贸易隐含碳的影响更为显著。(4)三重差分检验结果显示,在“一带一路”倡议推进的前期阶段,倡议对部分重点行业出口贸易隐含碳的促进效应要大于一般行业。因此,未来应进一步加强国内经济绿色转型与绿色“一带一路”建设,降低中国出口贸易隐含碳,实现区域经济绿色低碳发展。The Belt and Road Initiative(BRI)has strengthened economic and trade ties between China and regional countries,emerging as a significant driver of China's trade.However,its impact on the carbon emissions embedded in China's export trade remains underexplored.This paper employs a difference-in-differences(DID)model to analyze the BRI's influence on carbon emissions embodied in China's export trade and identify potential mediating mechanisms.The findings reveal that:(1)The BRI primarily promotes growth of carbon emissions embedded in China's exports to BRI countries by stimulating export expansion to these nations.(2)Regarding transmission mechanisms,the initiative indirectly affects export-embodied carbon through scale,technological,and structural effects.(3)Heterogeneity analysis indicates more pronounced impacts on carbon emissions from China's exports to Maritime Silk Road countries and proximate Belt and Road nations.(4)Triple difference tests demonstrate stronger promotion effects on carbon emissions from key industries compared to general sectors during the initial implementation phase.Consequently,future efforts should prioritize domestic green economic transformation and green BRI construction to reduce export-embodied carbon emissions,thereby achieving green and low-carbon development in the regional economy.

关 键 词：“一带一路”倡议 出口贸易隐含碳 双重差分模型 环境效应 

分 类 号：F752[经济管理—国际贸易]