风险偏好和过度自信影响下应急医疗物资供应链动力学研究  

Research on Dynamic Model of Emergency Medical Material Supply Chain under Risk Preference and Overconfidence

作　　者：史文强 何捷 汪明月 SHI Wenqiang;HE Jie;WANG Mingyue(School of Business Administration,Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics,Nanchang 330032,China;Department of Electronic Business,South China University of Technology,Guangzhou 510006,China;Institute of Science and Development,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China)

机构地区：[1]江西财经大学工商管理学院,江西南昌330032 [2]华南理工大学电子商务系,广东广州510006 [3]中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院,北京100049

出　　处：《运筹与管理》2024年第12期38-45,I0008,I0009,共10页Operations Research and Management Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(72204247,72261017);江西省社会科学基金项目(22GL41);教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目(21YJC630116);江西省自然科学基金项目(20242BAB20013)。

摘　　要：在疫情防控阶段,应急决策者可能会产生过度自信和风险偏好行为,影响应急物资保障的成效。本文以定量方法将风险偏好和过度自信融入物资调配的决策过程,构建突发公共卫生事件下双行为因素影响的应急医疗物资供应链系统动力学模型,并结合2020年武汉防疫实例,探索风险偏好、过度自信、动员政策强度和物资调度能力等对供应链性能的影响。研究表明:从长期看,高风险偏好容易导致需求满足率不足,适度悲观的态度有益于防控工作;在疫情防控后期,过高估计心理会降低灾民的需求满足率,而增强动员政策强度和物资调度能力将有助于供应链效能的提升。本文建立了行为因素、疫情防控、应急医疗物资配置之间的动态关联体系,为进一步完善应急物资保障体系提供了理论借鉴和决策支持。The public health emergencies do great harm to residents’life safety and economic development.Emergency medical materials provide important guarantees for the epidemic control and reduction of disaster losses.The establishment of an efficient emergency medical material supply chain under public health emergencies can quickly increase medical resources from shortage to dynamic balance,which has become a practical problem to be solved by all sectors in society.However,emergency decision-makers may have overconfidence and risk preference,which will affect the effectiveness of emergency response.Due to the characteristics of public health emergencies,by the traditional supply chain it is difficult to solve the allocation of medical materials under emergencies.Meanwhile,the real-time change in the number of infected people is a factor that must be considered in the material allocation action.Few scholars have comprehensively analyzed the dynamic constraints of various factors in the supply chain of emergency medical materials under the epidemic considering the risk preference and overconfidence of decision makers.Based on the dynamic perspective,this paper expands the SEIR infection mechanism on the premise of considering the real-time impact of COVID-19 on the number of infected people.Then the causal relationship between the epidemic control and medical material supply is explored by combining social factors such as national policies,with the epidemic response level and behavioral change.In addition,according to the complexity of decision-makers’behavior,we integrate the risk preference and overconfidence of emergency decision-makers in government departments into the decision-making process of material allocation with a quantitative method.Meanwhile,a system dynamics(SD)model affected by two behavioral factors under public health emergencies has been constructed.Finally,combined with the case of epidemic prevention in Wuhan,China,we explore the impact of risk preference,overconfidence,intensity of mobilization

关 键 词：风险偏好 过度自信 应急医疗物资 疫情防控 系统动力学 

分 类 号：X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治] N941.3[自然科学总论—系统科学]