制造业碳锁定影响路径分析的犹豫模糊集定性比较分析方法构建  

Construction of Hesitation Fuzzy-Set Qualitative Comparative Analysis Method for Carbon Lock-in Impact Path Analysis in Manufacturing Industry

作　　者：彭定洪[1,2] 马青[1,2] Peng Dinghong;Ma Qing(Faculty of Management and Economics,Kunming University of Science and Technology,Kunming 650504,China;Institute of Quality Development,Kunming University of Science and Technology,Kunming 650504,China)

机构地区：[1]昆明理工大学经济与管理学院,云南昆明650504 [2]昆明理工大学质量发展研究所,云南昆明650504

出　　处：《科技管理研究》2025年第2期167-177,共11页Science and Technology Management Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目“面向小微企业行为质量评价的复合因果链式指标框架和优劣价值测度方法”(72261020),“支持多群组协同决策的广义犹豫模糊TOPSIS关键技术与求解途径及其应用”(71861018);云南省哲学社会科学规划项目“多级HFTOPSIS-like综合评价方法及其在云南智慧旅游城市发展中的应用研究”(YB2019067)。

摘　　要：探索制造业碳锁定影响路径是准确揭示碳锁定影响机制、明晰碳锁定形成机制,从而助力解除制造业碳锁定、推动制造业低碳发展的重要环节。针对碳锁定过程因素对结果具有多重并发作用的特点,构建一种犹豫模糊集定性比较分析方法(hfsQCA)。基于对制造业碳锁定中多层级、多维度的影响因素会产生多样性的评估意见,采用犹豫模糊集表征多种相关评估信息;同时,考虑到模糊集定性比较分析方法中一致性和覆盖度对条件和结果的线性加权方式未能体现多因素间系统倍增效应,采用面式聚合形式提出新的方法以测度一致性与覆盖度,反映因素间的相互作用与整体性效应。此外,针对制造业碳锁定问题进行文献梳理总结,遴选出技术、制度、社会行为、产业等诸多影响因素,并以中国30个省份为样本研究制造业碳锁定的影响路径,得出技术主导型、产业主导型、技术与产业主导型下的4条制造业碳锁定形成组态路径。结果表明:多因素间的协同作用导致碳锁定现象出现,其中技术创新和产业结构是造成不同省份呈现出差异化制造业碳锁定路径的核心原因;hfsQCA方法通过犹豫模糊集保留所有可能的评估信息,提高信息的利用效率与结果的可信度,且采用面积交集的形式更充分地利用条件与结果的信息,有效反映出因素间的协同复杂作用。Exploring the influence path of manufacturing carbon locking is an important link to accurately reveal the influence mechanism of carbon locking and clarify the formation mechanism of carbon locking,so as to help release the manufacturing carbon locking and promote the low-carbon development of manufacturing industry.In view of the fact that the factors of carbon locking process have multiple concurrent effects on the results,a hesitant fuzzy set qualitative comparative analysis(hfsQCA)method is constructed.Based on the evaluation of the diversity of multi-level and multi-dimensional influencing factors in manufacturing carbon locking,the hesitant fuzzy sets are used to represent a variety of related evaluation information.At the same time,considering that the linear weighting of consistency and coverage to conditions and results in the method of qualitative comparative analysis of fuzzy sets does not reflect the system multiplier effect among multiple factors,a new method is proposed to measure consistency and coverage in the form of surface aggregation to reflect the interaction and integrity effect among factors.In addition,this paper summarizes the literature on the problem of carbon locking in manufacturing industry,and selects many influencing factors,such as technology,system,social behavior,and industry,30 regions in China are taken as samples to study the influence path of carbon locking in manufacturing industry,it is concluded that there are four manufacturing carbon locking configuration paths under technology-oriented,industry-oriented,and technology-and-owner-oriented.The results show that the synergistic effect of multiple factors leads to the phenomenon of carbon locking,in which technological innovation and industrial structure are the core reasons for the differential manufacturing carbon locking path in different provinces.HfsQCA method retains all possible evaluation information by hesitating fuzzy sets,improves the utilization efficiency of information and the credibility of results,and uses

关 键 词：制造业 碳锁定 评价方法 犹豫模糊集 定性比较分析 路径组态分析 

分 类 号：X22[环境科学与工程—环境科学] F224[经济管理—国民经济] G301[文化科学]