面向产业结构优化调整的广东省农业发展灰色系统建模  

Grey System Modeling of Agricultural Development in Guangdong Province for Industrial Structure Optimization

作　　者：梁静静 吴唯 LIANG Jingjing;WU Wei(Department of Basic Course Teaching Research,Guangdong Polytechnic Institute,Zhaoqing,526100,China;Department of Economy Management,Jingdezhen University,Jingdezhen 333400,China)

机构地区：[1]广东理工学院基础课教学研究部,广东肇庆526100 [2]景德镇学院经济管理学院,江西景德镇333400

出　　处：《景德镇学院学报》2024年第6期5-11,共7页Journal of JingDeZhen University

基　　金：广东省高等教育学会“十四五”规划高等教育研究课题(24GQN35);江西省教育厅科技项目(GJJ212805);广东理工学院科技项目(2024YBZK002)。

摘　　要：当前广东省农业产业结构存在种植业占比偏高,林业、牧业和农业服务业发展相对滞后,以及三产融合不足的问题,这些问题制约了农业综合效益的进一步提升。为此,本文基于2017—2023年相关数据,通过灰色关联分析评估了各内部产业对农业总产值的关联度,并利用GM(1,1)模型预测未来五年的发展趋势。研究得出以下主要结论:(1)农业内部各产业的关联度排序为:种植业>渔业>林业>牧业>农业服务业,种植业和渔业对总产值的贡献最大;(2)农业总产值预计将持续增长,种植业和渔业仍为主要增长点,牧业呈逐年下降趋势,林业和农业服务业则逐步提升。基于研究结果,文章提出了优化农业产业结构的具体建议,为促进广东省农业高质量发展及相关政策的制定提供科学依据。The current agricultural industrial structure in Guangdong Province faces challenges such as an overreliance on the planting industry,relatively lagging development in forestry,animal husbandry,and agricultural services,as well as insufficient integration of primary,secondary,and tertiary industries,which constrain the further improvement of agricultural comprehensive benefits.Based on the relevant data from 2017 to 2023,this study evaluates the correlation between various internal industries and total agricultural output using grey relational analysis and forecasts the development trends for the next five years using the GM(1,1)model.The main conclusions are as follows:(1)The ranking of correlations between internal industries and total agricultural output is planting>fishery>forestry>animal husbandry>agricultural services,with planting and fishery making the largest contributions to the total output.(2)The total agricultural output is expected to continue growing,with planting and fishery remaining the primary growth drivers,while animal husbandry shows a declining trend and forestry and agricultural services gradually improve.Based on the findings,specific recommendations for optimizing the agricultural industry structure are proposed,providing scientific support for promoting high-quality development of agriculture and relevant policy making in Guangdong Province.

关 键 词：广东省 农业产业结构优化 灰色关联分析 GM(1 1)模型 政策建议 

分 类 号：F327[经济管理—产业经济]