非对称依赖视角下韩国尹锡悦政府在中美间战略选择的动因分析  

An Analysis of the Motivation of Yoon Suk-yeol Administration's Strategic Choice between China and US from the Perspective of Asymmetric Dependence

作　　者：张弛[1] 鲍兆林 Zhang Chi;Bao Zhaolin(International Politics,Shanghai University of Political Science and Law;School of Government,Shanghai University of Political Science and Law)

机构地区：[1]上海政法学院政府管理学院国际政治教研室 [2]上海政法学院政府管理学院

出　　处：《当代韩国》2025年第1期73-89,共17页Contemporary Korea

摘　　要：中韩建交以来,韩国长期在中美之间奉行“安美经中”的外交政策,但尹锡悦上台后,韩国对外政策出现了“亲美疏中”倾向。尹锡悦政府之所以在中美之间如此选择,根源在于中美韩三边关系是一种非对称依赖结构:韩国对中国存在经济依赖,但所依赖的对华贸易和中国市场,美国及其盟伴国家有一定程度的替代能力;而韩国对美国存在“安全+经济”的双重依赖,安全上中国尚难取代美韩同盟,经济上韩国所需的部分关键技术目前中国也缺乏替代美国的能力。故此,韩国对美国的非对称依赖程度大于对中国,这给了面临半岛安全压力和高度重视“经济安全”的尹锡悦政府调整政策的理由。然而,中美韩三边非对称依赖关系并非一成不变。美韩同盟难以解决韩国的安全困境,中韩经济关系仍是互利合作大于竞争对抗,中美科技竞争的最终结果亦未可知,韩国对中美两国的非对称依赖程度未来可能出现新的变化。所以,仅基于当前的中美韩非对称依赖关系结构而选择“亲美疏中”,不仅会压缩韩国的外交空间,还会对其国家利益造成不利影响。Since the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and ROK, ROK has long pursued the foreign policy of “Security by the US while Economy by China”, but after Yoon Suk-yeol took office, ROK's foreign policy has shown a tendency of “pro-US and estranged China”. The reason why the Yoon administration made such a choice between China and US is rooted in the asymmetric dependence structure of the trilateral relationship among China, US and ROK. ROK is economically dependent on China, but US and its allies have a certain degree of substitution ability for the trade with China and the Chinese market it relies on. ROK has a “security plus economy” dual dependence on the United States, and China is still difficult to replace the US-ROK alliance in security, and China also lacks the ability to replace US in some key technologies needed by ROK in economy. Therefore, ROK's asymmetric dependence on US is greater than that of China, which gives the Yoon administration, which is facing security pressure on the Peninsula and attaches great importance to economic security, a reason to adjust its policy. However, the trilateral asymmetric dependence is not immutable. The US-ROK alliance can hardly solve the security dilemma of ROK. The economic relationship between China and ROK is still mutually beneficial cooperation rather than competition. The final outcome of the Sino-US technological competition is unknown, and ROK's asymmetric dependence on China and US will have new changes in the future. Therefore, choosing to be “pro-US and estranged China” based only on the current structure of asymmetric dependence among China, US and ROK will not only compress ROK's diplomatic space, but also adversely affect its national interests.

关 键 词：中美韩三边关系 中韩关系 亲美疏中 安美经中 非对称依赖 

分 类 号：G63[文化科学—教育学]