天长芡实水田小气候特征分析及预测研究  

Analysis and Prediction of Microclimate Characteristics in Tianchang Euryale Ferox Paddy Fields

作　　者：秦粮朋 王德燕 董保华 QIN Liangpeng;WANG Deyan;DONG Baohua(Tianchang Meteorological Bureau,Tianchang,Anhui 239300,China)

机构地区：[1]天长市气象局,安徽天长239300

出　　处：《乡村科技》2025年第4期148-154,共7页Rural Science and Technology

基　　金：天长市科技项目“天长芡实气象致灾因子和气象服务策略研究”(2417)。

摘　　要：基于天长芡实种植基地小气候站和天长国家气象观测站2022年5—10月的气象数据,分析发现芡实水田相对湿度在各类天气的日变化特征基本相似,气温、水温的日最高值和最低值在晴天、多云天气时均出现于午后和早晨,在阴天时则出现于上午和夜间;芡实水田对于气象变化具有延缓作用,变化幅度低于天长站;多元线性回归模型对芡实水田气象情况的预测效果较好,拟合优度均在0.85以上,均通过信度0.01的显著性检验。Based on meteorological data from May to October 2022 collected at the microclimate station in the Tianchang Euryale ferox planting base and the Tianchang National Meteorological Observatory,this study analyzes the diurnal variation characteristics of relative humidity in Euryale ferox paddy fields under different weather conditions.The results show that the daily maximum and minimum values of air temperature and water temperature in sunny and cloudy weather occur in the afternoon and early morning,respectively,while in overcast conditions,they appear in the late morning and nighttime.The paddy fields exhibit a buffering effect on meteorological parameter variations,with smaller amplitude fluctuations compared to the Tianchang station.The multiple linear regression model demonstrates strong predictive performance for meteorological elements,with goodness-of-fit values all exceeding 0.85 and passing significance tests at the 0.01 confidence level.

关 键 词：天长 芡实 小气候 多元线性回归 

分 类 号：Q948.112.4[生物学—植物学]