随机化Lotka-Volterra模型下新能源汽车与传统燃油汽车竞争销量预测分析  

Forecasting Sales Competition Between New Energy Vehicles and Traditional Fuel Vehicles Using a Stochastic Lotka-Volterra Model

作　　者：陈进晶 张兆远 CHEN Jinjing;ZHANG Zhaoyuan(School of Mathematics and Statistics,Yili Normal University,Yining 835000,China;Institute of Applied Mathematics,Yili Normal University,Yining 835000,China)

机构地区：[1]伊犁师范大学数学与统计学院,新疆伊宁835000 [2]伊犁师范大学应用数学研究所,新疆伊宁835000

出　　处：《长春师范大学学报》2025年第2期7-15,21,共10页Journal of Changchun Normal University

基　　金：伊犁师范大学2021年度博士科研启动基金项目“贝叶斯统计理论在教育学中的应用”(2021YSBS012)。

摘　　要：建立一种新的Lotka-Volterra预测模型,通过一体化的处理框架给出模型的参数估计和销量预测,探讨新能源汽车与传统燃油汽车之间的动态竞争关系.结果表明,当前新能源汽车销量逐步上升,而传统燃油汽车的销量不断下降,两者之间的竞合关系呈现完全竞争状态.从发展趋势来看,新能源汽车销量将持续增长.This study proposes a novel stochastic Lotka-Volterra model to investigate the dynamic competitive relationship between new energy vehicles and traditional fuel vehicles.The model integrates parameter estimation and sales forecasting within a unified framework.The results reveal that current new energy vehicle sales exhibit a steady upward trend,whereas traditional fuel vehicle sales,are in decline,reflecting an intensifying competitive landscape between the two sectors.Furthermore,the predictive outcomes indicate that new energy vehicle sales will maintain sustained growth in the foreseeable future.

关 键 词：LOTKA-VOLTERRA模型 新能源汽车 传统燃油汽车 

分 类 号：O242[理学—计算数学]