农业上市企业财务风险预警模型测试研究  

Research on the Testing of Financial Risk Early Warning Model of Agricultural Listed Companies

作　　者：王美 宁雪 宋霞 牟海静 WANG Mei;NING Xue;SONG Xia;MOU Haijing(College of Economics and Management/Business School,Shandong Agricultural University,Tai'an 271018,Shandong Province,China;Weifang Hanting District Agricultural Technology Extension Center,Weifang 261100,Shandong Province,China)

机构地区：[1]山东农业大学经济管理学院/商学院,山东泰安271018 [2]潍坊市寒亭区农业技术推广中心,山东潍坊261100

出　　处：《沈阳农业大学学报(社会科学版)》2024年第6期680-686,共7页Journal of Shenyang Agricultural University(Social Sciences Edition)

基　　金：山东农业大学教学改革研究项目(XM202254);山东农业大学课程思政教学改革研究项目(S2023025)。

摘　　要：农业上市企业是农业新质生产力发展的推动者之一。为保证农业上市企业的持续健康发展,构建一个准确的财务风险预警机制对财务风险进行预警和控制非常重要。以2013~2022年A股37家农业上市企业为研究样本,采用BP神经网络方法构建财务风险预警模型,测试结果表明模型的综合准确率为80.16%,具有较好的判别效果,通过指标分析认为盈利风险中的总资产净利率是影响企业财务风险的主要因素,运用模型对D企业的财务风险进行预警判断。根据研究结论提出:加强资金管理,提高资产运用效率;加强负债结构管理,优化资本结构;优化股权结构,保持适度股权集中度;加强存货管理,减少库存积压;改善经营效率,降低经营风险;强化科技创新,增强市场竞争力等对策建议。Agricultural listed companies are key drivers in developing new quality productive forces in agriculture.To ensure their sustainable and healthy growth,establishing an accurate financial risk early warning mechanism is essential for effective risk monitoring and control.This study analyzes 37 agricultural companies listed on the A-share market from 2013 to 2022,employing a BP neural network to construct a financial risk early warning model,which achieved a comprehensive accuracy of 80.16%,indicating strong predictive performance.Indicator analysis revealed that the net interest rate on total assets,a key profitability risk factor,is the primary driver of financial risk in these companies.The model was further applied to assess the financial risk of Company D.Based on these findings,the study recommends strengthening fund management and improving asset utilization efficiency,enhancing debt structure management while optimizing capital structure,adjusting equity structure while maintaining balanced equity concentration,improving inventory management to reduce stockpiling,increasing operational efficiency to minimize business risks,and promoting technological innovation to enhance market competitiveness.

关 键 词：农业上市企业 财务风险 BP神经网络模型 总资产净利率 风险预警 

分 类 号：F324.6[经济管理—产业经济] F302.6