江苏省启东市1972-2021年老年人群恶性肿瘤死亡流行特征  

Epidemiological characteristics of cancer mortality in the elderly in Qidong,1972-2021

作　　者：陈永胜 王军 唐小慧[2] 朱健[1] Chen Yongsheng;Wang Jun;Tang Xiaohui;Zhu Jian(Department of Etiology,Qidong People's Hospital/Qidong Liver Cancer Institute/Affiliated Qidong Hospital of Nantong University,Qidong 226200,China;Department of Oncology,Qidong People's Hospital/Qidong Liver Cancer Institute/Affiliated Qidong Hospital of Nantong University,Qidong 226200,China)

机构地区：[1]启东市人民医院、启东肝癌防治研究所、南通大学附属启东医院病因室,启东226200 [2]启东市人民医院、启东肝癌防治研究所、南通大学附属启东医院肿瘤科,启东226200

出　　处：《中华肿瘤杂志》2025年第3期237-243,共7页Chinese Journal of Oncology

基　　金：南通市卫生健康委员会科研课题(MS2023121);南通市“十四五”科教强卫工程(通卫科技[2021]15号)。

摘　　要：目的分析江苏省启东市1972-2021年老年人群恶性肿瘤死亡流行特征,为制定老年恶性肿瘤精准防控策略提供科学依据。方法数据资料来源于启东癌症登记报告系统,采用描述性研究方法,计算老年人群(≥60岁)恶性肿瘤死亡率,中标率采用2000年中国标准人口年龄构成,世标率采用Segi''s世界标准人口年龄构成计算。使用Joinpoint 4.9.1.0软件计算死亡率的年度变化百分比(APC)和平均年度变化百分比(AAPC)。结果1972-2021年启东市老年人群恶性肿瘤死亡74723例,粗死亡率为752.08/10万,中标率为666.03/10万(男性994.22/10万,女性470.29/10万),世标率为681.11/10万。中标率在2000年以前波动较小,2001-2011年快速上升,2011-2021年则有所下降。2017-2021年粗死亡率为791.01/10万,中标率为689.80/10万(男性956.77/10万,女性469.98/10万),世标率为657.53/10万。2012-2021年,启东市60~64岁、65~69岁、70~74岁、75~79岁、80+岁年龄组的恶性肿瘤死亡率分别为385.42/10万、505.51/10万、721.64/10万、1213.28/10万、1705.32/10万,<75岁老年人2012-2021年死亡率均低于其他时期,而≥75岁老年人2012-2021年死亡率均高于其他时期。1972-2021年恶性肿瘤总体中标死亡率的AAPC值为0.22%,其中2008-2021年APC值为-1.59%(均P<0.05)。50年间死亡例数前5位的恶性肿瘤是肺癌、胃癌、肝癌、结直肠癌和食管癌,中标率的AAPC值分别为1.61%、-2.36%、-0.10%、1.44%、-2.03%,其中肺癌和结直肠癌死亡率的上升趋势、胃癌和食管癌死亡率的下降趋势有统计学意义(P<0.05)。结论启东市老年人群恶性肿瘤死亡率处于较高水平,2008年起老年恶性肿瘤总体死亡率呈下降趋势,部分恶性肿瘤的防控已显成效。Objective To analysis the prevalence characteristics of cancer mortality among the elderly in Qidong City,Jiangsu Province,from 1972 to 2021,and to provide scientific basis for the development of precise prevention and control strategies for cancer in the elderly.MethodsData of cancers were obtained from Qidong Cancer Registry,a descriptive study method was used to calculate the crude mortality rate(CMR)of cancer among the elderly(≥60 years old).The China age-standardized rate(ASR-C)was calculated using the age structure of the Chinese population in 2000,and world age-standardized rate(ASR-W)was calculated using Segi's world standard population.Joinpoint regression analysis was performed using Joinpoint 4.9.1.0 software to calculate the annual percentage change(APC)and average annual percentage change(AAPC)of mortality.Results From 1972 to 2021,there were 74723 cancer deaths in the elderly in Qidong,with CMR of 752.08/105,ASR-C of 666.03/105(994.22/105 for males and 470.29/105 for females)and ASR-W of 681.11/105.The ASR-C showed little fluctuation before 2000,increased rapidly from 2001 to 2011,and then decreased from 2011 to 2021.From 2017 to 2021,the CMR was 791.01/105,the ASR-C was 689.80/105(956.77/105 for males and 469.98/105 for females),and the ASR-W was 657.53/105.The CMR for the 60-64,65-69,70-74,75-79,and 80+age groups from 2012 to 2021 were 385.42/105505.51/105,721.64/105,1213.28/105,and 1705.32/105,respectively.The CMR of elderly under 75 years old were lower from 2012 to 2021 than in other periods,while those of elderly people aged more than 75 years were higher from 2012 to 2021 than in other periods.The AAPC for ASR-C of all cancers over the 50 years was 0.22%,with APC of-1.59%in 2008-2021(both P<0.05).Over the 50 years,the top five cancers in terms of mortality were lung cancer,gastric cancer,liver cancer,colorectal cancer,and esophageal cancer.Their AAPCs of ASR-C were 1.61%,-2.36%,-0.10%,1.44%,and-2.03%,respectively.The increasing trends of mortality rates for lung cancer and colorectal cancer

关 键 词：恶性肿瘤 老年人群 死亡率 趋势 启东 

分 类 号：R73[医药卫生—肿瘤]