黑龙江省1991—2020年C_(CDI)时空变化特征及未来趋势分析  

Temporal and Spatial Variation Characteristics and Future Trend Analysis of C_(CDI) in Heilongjiang Province from 1991 to 2020

作　　者：张金峰[1] 陈农 闫敏慧[1] 徐占胜 高玲[1] 杨宁 王蕾[1] ZHANG Jinfeng;CHEN Nong;YAN Minhui;XU Zhansheng;GAO Ling;YANG Ning;WANG Lei(Heilongjiang Meteorological Service Center,Harbin 150030,China)

机构地区：[1]黑龙江省气象服务中心,黑龙江哈尔滨150030

出　　处：《灾害学》2025年第2期71-76,共6页Journal of Catastrophology

基　　金：黑龙江省自然科学基金联合引导项目“气候变化背景下黑龙江玉米生育期气候资源利用率评估研究”(LH2021D020)。

摘　　要：该文基于黑龙江省1991—2020年逐日最低气温资料,采用空间插值、气候倾向回归、滑动T检验、M—K检验、Morlet小波、PCA和Hurst指数分析等数理方法,探讨了黑龙江省持续低温指数(C_(CDI))的时间变化、空间分布、突变性、周期性、未来变化趋势及其对粮食产量的影响。结果显示:1991—2020年黑龙江省C_(CDI)年际变化波动较大,整体上呈减少趋势,每10 a减少0.4 d,21世纪以来波动加剧。虽然存在4个突变年份,但突变趋势不显著,其周期特征在2000—2010年较为明显;C_(CDI)年内变化在冬季呈增加趋势,夏季呈减少趋势,且夏季与粮食单产负相关;年均C_(CDI)空间差异较大,呈现北多南少,西多东少的格局,本世纪后C_(CDI)值在[50 d,60 d)的区域大幅缩减,≥60 d的区域明显增加;预计未来黑龙江省C_(CDI)将继续下降,尤其在西北部、东北部和中南部地区更加显著。Based on the daily minimum temperature data from 1991 to 2020 in Heilongjiang Province,and by using spatial interpolation,climate tendency regression,sliding T test,M—K test,Morlet wavelet analysis,PCA,Hurst index analysis and other mathematical methods,the temporal variation,spatial distribution,mutability,period⁃icity,future trend of C_(CDI) in Heilongjiang Province and its impact on grain yield are explored.The results show that the C_(CDI) in Heilongjiang Province showed a trend of decreasing by 0.4d per 10a from 1991 to 2020,and the interannual vari⁃ation fluctuated greatly,which became more obvious in the 21st century.Although there are four mutation years of C_(CDI) in Heilongjiang Province,the mutation trend is not significant,and its periodic characteristics are more obvious in the early ten years of the 21st century.The C_(CDI) in Heilongjiang Province is divided into winter and summer half year.The winter half year is mainly increasing trend,and the summer half year is mainly decreasing trend.The C_(CDI) is negatively correlated with the grain yield in the summer half year.During the study period,the average annual C_(CDI) in Heilongjiang Province showed a distribution pattern of more in the north and less in the south,more in the west and less in the east.In the 21st century,the area of C_(CDI) 60>d≥50 was greatly reduced,and the area of C_(CDI)≥60d was significantly in⁃creased.The C_(CDI) in Heilongjiang Province will still show a decreasing trend in the future,and the trend will be more ob⁃vious in the northwest,northeast and south-central regions of Heilongjiang Province.

关 键 词：持续低温指数(C_(CDI)) 时空变化 M—K检验 MORLET小波 HURST指数 

分 类 号：X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治] X915.5[农业科学—农业气象学] S162.3[农业科学—农业基础科学] P429[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]