极端天气冲击下的新型电力系统风险识别及应急策略研究  

Research on Risk Identification and Emergency Strategies of New Power Systems under the Impact of Extreme Weather

作　　者：黎金玲 郑毅 吴祈 张良 郭海湘[2,3] LI Jinling;ZHENG Yi;WU Qi;ZHANG Liang;GUO Haixiang(School of Economics and Management,Hubei University of Education,Wuhan 430205,China;School of Economics and Management,China University of Geosciences,Wuhan 430074,China;Laboratory of Natural Disaster Risk Prevention and Emergency Management,China University of Geosciences,Wuhan 430074,China;Institutes of Science and Development,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100190,China;School of Public Policy and Management,University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China)

机构地区：[1]湖北第二师范学院经济与管理学院,湖北武汉430205 [2]中国地质大学(武汉)经济管理学院,湖北武汉430074 [3]中国地质大学(武汉)自然灾害风险防控与应急管理实验室,湖北武汉430074 [4]中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院,北京100190 [5]中国科学院大学公共政策与管理学院,北京100049

出　　处：《灾害学》2025年第2期170-177,共8页Journal of Catastrophology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目“大数据驱动下自然资源生态安全预测预警预案研究”(72074198);湖北省自然科学基金创新群体项目“复合链生灾害致灾机制与综合风险防控体系研究”(2024AFA015)。

摘　　要：该文利用文本挖掘技术,揭示了极端天气冲击下新型电力系统“源-网-储-荷”各端的风险因素。并结合FAIR灾害分析框架、Apriori关联算法和贝叶斯网络模型,模拟极端天气情景下新型电力系统的灾害演化路径,推断关键风险因素和应急管理措施。研究发现:①极端天气下,新型电力系统呈现出风险要素多、承灾体类型多样,且各风险要素间交互作用和传导路径复杂;②从“源-网-储-荷”全架构看,新型电力系统的关键风险节点为电网端的电力设备;③及时采取应急管理措施能有效降低关键设备故障风险,人为干预是提升电力系统安全性和可靠性的关键。上述发现为捕捉极端天气情景下新型电力系统的灾害演化特征,推进新型电力系统的应急管理体系建设提供了重要依据。Using text mining techniques,the risk factors of the"source-grid-storage-load"components in the new power system under extreme weather impacts are revealed.Furthermore,combining the FAIR disaster analysis framework,Apriori association algorithm,and Bayesian network model,the disaster evolution paths of the new power system under extreme weather scenarios are simulated and key risk factors and emergency manage⁃ment measures are deduced.The research findings show that:①Under extreme weather impacts,the new power system exhibits characteristics of multiple risk elements,diverse disaster-bearing bodies,and high complexity in the interactions and transmission paths between various risk factors;②From the perspective of the complete"source-grid-storage-load"architecture,the critical risk nodes of the new power system are the power equipment in the grid end;③Timely implementation of emergency management measures can effectively reduce the risk of key equipment failures,and human intervention is crucial for enhancing power system safety and reliability.These findings contribute to capturing the disaster evolution characteristics of new power systems under extreme weather scenarios and advancing the construction of emergency management systems for new power systems.

关 键 词：极端天气 新型电力系统 风险识别 文本挖掘 贝叶斯网络 

分 类 号：X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治] C93[经济管理—管理学] X919.5