雅江县土窝沟火后泥石流物源动储量预测与灾变过程研究  

Prediction of Post-Fire Debris Flow Source Storage and Dynamic Processes in the Slope Erosion of Tuwogou,Yajiang County

作　　者：周康驰 常鸣[1] 张宁[1] 尹道龙 李林泽 QU Minhao;LI Li;WANG Jianping;CHENG Yong;GAO Yang;WANG Xuehan;HUANG Xinjie(National Earthquake Response Support Service,Beijing 100049,China;Key Laboratory of Life Search and Rescue Technology for Earthquake and Geological Disaster,Ministry of Emergency Management of China,Beijing 100049,China;Fire Rescue Detachment in Fuzhou City,Fuzhou 350001,China)

机构地区：[1]成都理工大学地质灾害防治与地质环境保护国家重点实验室,四川成都610059

出　　处：《灾害学》2025年第2期198-204,共7页Journal of Catastrophology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金“强震区泥石流服役拦砂坝损伤机制与减灾效果评价方法研究”(42477173);四川省自然科学基金“泥石流松散物源侵蚀起动与输移演进研究”(2024NSFSC0071);四川省中央引导地方科技发展专项项目“消防管效应”下强震区泥石流动力侵蚀演进过程研究(2024ZYD0121)。

摘　　要：以2024年6月11日四川省雅江县土窝沟发生的火后泥石流为研究对象,采用西昌火烧迹地经验模型,预测不同降雨强度下的坡面侵蚀深度与动储量。结合地形条件、物源动储量与不同降雨频率(20%、5%、2%、1%),开展基于OpenLISEM模型的火后泥石流灾变过程动力模拟。结果显示,土窝沟流域在20%、5%、2%、1%降雨频率下坡面最大侵蚀深度分别为9.89 mm、10.69 mm、11.09 mm、11.38 mm,其物源动储量分别为3.41万m^(3)、3.83万m^(3)、3.98万m^(3)、4.08万m^(3)。泥石流在20%、5%、2%、1%降雨频率下,最大流速分别为2.5 m/s、4 m/s、5 m/s、6 m/s,最大堆积深度分别为1.5 m、2.7 m、3.5 m、4.4 m,在2%、1%降雨频率下,泥石流裹挟固体物质较多,部分物质冲出沟口并参与河流演化,可抬高河床对雅砻江造成半堵状态。Based on the post-fire debris flow in Tuwogou,Yajiang County,Sichuan Province,and by utilizing the Xichang burn scar empirical model,slope erosion depth and dynamic source storage in the Tuwogou watershed under different rainfall intensities are predicted.By integrating terrain conditions,dynamic source storage,and rainfall fre⁃quencies of 20%,5%,2%,and 1%,dynamic evolution simulations are conducted based on the OpenLISEM model.The results show that under rainfall frequencies of 20%,5%,2%,and 1%,the maximum slope erosion depths in the Tuwogou watershed are 9.89 mm,10.69 mm,11.09 mm,and 11.38 mm,respectively,with corresponding dy⁃namic source storage amounts of 3.41,3.83,3.98,and 4.08×10^(4)m^(3).The results indicate that under rainfall fre⁃quencies of 20%,5%,2%,and 1%,the maximum flow velocities are 2.5,4,5,and 6 m/s,and the maximum deposition depths are 1.5,2.7,3.5,and 4.4 m,respectively.Under rainfall frequencies of 2%and 1%,debris flows carry a large amount of solid material,and some of the material rushes out of the gully and participates in river evo⁃lution,which can raise the riverbed and create a semi-blocked state in the Yalong River.

关 键 词：火后泥石流 坡面侵蚀 物源动储量 OpenLISEM 灾变过程 雅江县土窝沟 

分 类 号：X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治] X915.5[天文地球—地质学] P694