承灾体视角下的城市自然灾害风险演化情景模拟——以常州中心城区为例  

Scenario Simulation of Urban Natural Hazard Risk Evolution under the Perspective of Elements at Risk:A Case Study of Changzhou Central Area

作　　者：颜玮祎 李飞雪[1] 罗婷瑜 YAN Weiyi;LI Feixue;LUO Tingyu(School of Geography and Ocean Science,Nanjing University,Nanjing 210023,China)

机构地区：[1]南京大学地理与海洋科学学院,江苏南京210023

出　　处：《灾害学》2025年第2期211-218,共8页Journal of Catastrophology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目“顾及风险演化和人群响应动态过程的城市应急避难场所布局优化”(42471452)。

摘　　要：现代城市高楼遍布,各承灾体关联紧密,导致灾害后果显著增加,灾害风险加剧。该研究以灾害系统中的承灾体为视角,关注其时空状态变化及要素转化,基于复杂网络、灾害蔓延动力学等理论构建灾害演化情景模拟模型。江苏省常州市受特殊的地理位置、地形地貌和水文气候条件等影响,洪涝灾害频发,利用土地变更调查数据、建筑物分布数据以及历史灾情等数据,对其中心城区开展暴雨灾害风险演化情景模拟,结果显示:对于轻、中度脆弱性的承灾体,应急响应能力大于0.11时绝大部分承灾体的严重受损数量能够维持在安全阈值内,故应尽可能提高其应急响应能力;对于重度脆弱性的承灾体,提高应急响应能力并未明显改善其状态,因此应重点降低其脆弱性。Modem cities are densely flled with high-rise buildings,and various disaster bearing bodies are closely relat-ed,boh of these lead to a significant increase in disaster consequences and intensified disaster risks.Taking the disaster bear-ing bodies in the disaster system as the research perspective,their temporal and spatial state changes and the transformation processes of elements are focused on.Based on theories such as complex networks and the dynamics of disaster spreading,a simulation model of disaster evolution scenarios is constructed.Due to its special geographical location,topography,and hydro-climatic conditions,Changzhou City in Jiangsu Province frequently suffers from flood disasters.Using the 2020 Chang-zhou land change survey data and the 2019 Changzhou building distribution data,a scenario simulation of rainstormn disaster risk evolution in Changzhou’s central urban area is conducted.The results show that,during the disaster evolution process,efforts should be made to enhance the response capabilities of the disaster bearing bodies with light and medium vulnerability,while the disaster bearing bodies with high vulnerability should be emphasized to reduce their vulnerability.

关 键 词：自然灾害 承灾体 情景模拟 风险评估 常州市 洪涝灾害 

分 类 号：X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治] X915.5