山区城镇雨洪灾害下的应急响应系统动态SD模拟研究——以北京市门头沟为例  

Dynamic SD Simulation Study of Emergency Response Systems in Mountainous Urban Areas under Rainstorm:A Case Study of Mentougou District,Beijing

作　　者：宋钦滢 马东辉[1] 夏陈红 王威[1] SONG Qinying;MA Donghui;XIA Chenhong;WANG Wei(College of Architecture and Urban Planning,Beijing University of Technology,Beijing 100124,China)

机构地区：[1]北京工业大学建筑与城市规划学院,北京100124

出　　处：《灾害学》2025年第2期219-227,共9页Journal of Catastrophology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目“复合灾害情景下城市应急服务设施系统协同鲁棒优化与防灾韧性提升”(52278472);北京市自然科学基金项目“防灾韧性驱动的复合灾害适应性城市应急服务设施系统优化配置研究”(8232004)。

摘　　要：在全球气候变暖和城市化加速的背景下,城市面临更严峻的雨洪风险,而现有的应急管理系统往往反应不足。该文以北京市门头沟为例,基于“23·7”暴雨事件,采用系统动力学(SD)建模方法,构建以生命线、应急医疗、应急物资和应急避难系统交互反馈为基础的系统模型,模拟暴雨灾害下的城市应急响应动态变化。研究表明,门头沟生命线的损失对整个应急响应系统影响明显,特别体现在应急医疗和应急避难系统;应急医疗的服务能力有待提升;信息传递和政府关注对物资系统至关重要,而灾害规划与管理、避难场所可达性和防灾教育对应急避难系统影响较大。基于以上结论,分别对门头沟应急响应各系统提出防洪减灾建议,为提升山区城镇雨洪灾害应急管理能力提供参考。In the context of escalating global climate change and rapid urbanization,the inadequate spatial re⁃sponses to increasingly extreme and intricate flood risks present a significant challenge.However,existing emergency management systems often fail to respond effectively.Using the Mentougou District in Beijing as a case study and drawing on the‘23·7’heavy rainfall event,System Dynamics(SD)modeling methods is employed to conduct dynamic simula⁃tion research on emergency responses by constructing a system model grounded in the interactive feedback among lifeline systems,emergency medical services,emergency supplies,and emergency shelter systems.The results demonstrate that the loss of lifeline systems in Mentougou exerts a significant impact on the entire emergency response system,partic⁃ularly in the realms of emergency medical services and emergency shelter systems.The capacity of emergency medical services in Mentougou is found to require enhancement.Additionally,the dissemination of information and governmental attention are shown to substantially influence the emergency supplies system,while disaster planning and management,the accessibility of shelter locations,and disaster education are identified as critical factors affecting the emergency shel⁃ter system.Based on these conclusions,targeted flood prevention and disaster mitigation recommendations are proposed for each subsystem of the emergency response in Mentougou,thereby providing a valuable reference for improving the emergency management capabilities of mountainous towns in the face of flood disasters.

关 键 词：暴雨山洪 灾害反演 应急响应 系统动力学 情景模拟 

分 类 号：TU984.116[建筑科学—城市规划与设计] X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治] X915.5