气候变化与财政困境:干旱对县级财政压力的影响  

Climate Change and Fiscal Dilemmas:The Impact of Drought on Fiscal Stress at the County Level

作　　者：刘南 孔军 Liu Nan;Kong Jun

机构地区：[1]西北大学经济管理学院,西安710127 [2]西北大学经济管理学院财政与税收系,西安710127

出　　处：《公共财政研究》2025年第1期35-50,共16页Public Finance Research Journal

基　　金：国家外国专家项目“中国西部城乡劳动力市场融合的综合测度研究”(G2023041027L);西北大学研究生创新项目“应对气候变化的财政政策研究”(CX2024030)阶段性研究成果。

摘　　要：气候变化是全人类面临的共同挑战,对经济和社会的影响日益凸显,但其破坏地方政府财政稳定性的影响往往被忽视。本文运用2000—2019年我国2061个县的面板数据,实证检验了干旱对地方政府财政压力的影响。研究发现,干旱加剧了地方政府的财政压力,对工业生产等经济活动的冲击是一个重要的影响因素。从经济意义来看,干旱程度每上升1%,县级财政压力平均增加1.2%。异质性分析发现,干旱对财政压力的经济效应会受到地理环境和区域经济发展水平的影响。在东部、中部和东北地区,经济发展水平较高的地区、湿润地区、财政状况较弱的地区以及人口密度较高的地区,财政压力对干旱更为敏感。结合研究结论,建议加强中央统筹规划与政策引导,强化干旱监测与预警体系建设,优化和升级应对气候变化的财政政策,推进跨区域间合作与资源共享。Climate change has emerged as a ubiquitous crisis,and its economic and social impacts are more pronounced,while the fiscal stability of local governments is often ignored.This paper examines the impact of drought on fiscal stress using the panel data of 2061 counties in China from 2000 to 2019.We find that drought exacerbates fiscal stress of local governments,and the shocks to economic activities such as production,investment and consumption is a crucial influence factor,which indicates that 1%increase in the the risk of drought is associated with a increase of fiscal stress by 1.2%.Heterogeneity analysis shows that the economic effects of drought on fiscal stress can be constrained by geography and economic development,which is more sensitive to drought in the east,central and northeast China,developed regions,humid regions,as well as counties with weaker fiscal performance and higher population density.Finally,we propose recommendations to address climate change,including strengthening central government leadership,building a monitoring and early warning system,optimizing fiscal policy to address climate change,and promoting cross-regional cooperation.

关 键 词：气候变化 干旱 县级 财政压力 

分 类 号：F812.7[经济管理—财政学] F205[环境科学与工程—灾害防治] X43