学龄人口变化对城乡学前教育资源配置的影响与预测——基于DEA-Malmquist指数模型  

Impact and Prediction of Changes in School-age Population on the Technical Efficiency of Preschool Education Resources in Urban and Rural Areas——Based on DEA-Malmquist Exponential Modeling

作　　者：佘万斌[1] 周波 陈莉华 SHE Wan-bin;ZHOU Bo;CHEN Li-hua(Leshan Normal University,Leshan,Sichuan,614000;College of Education,China West Normal University,Nanchong,Sichuan,637009;College of Preschool and Primary Education,China West Normal University,Nanchong,Sichuan,637009)

机构地区：[1]乐山师范学院,四川乐山614000 [2]西华师范大学教育学院,四川南充637009 [3]西华师范大学学前与初等教育学院,四川南充637009

出　　处：《贵州师范学院学报》2025年第3期46-55,共10页Journal of Guizhou Education University

基　　金：南充市社科研究“十四五”规划2024年度项目“普惠性幼儿园师资队伍建设的现状及策略研究——以南充市S区为例”(NC24C260)。

摘　　要：借助DEA-Malmquist指数模型和多状态人口预测模型,深入分析了学龄人口变化对城乡学前教育资源配置效率的影响,并预测了未来师资需求。研究发现:城市地区学前教育资源配置效率受学龄人口波动影响较大,纯技术效率存在波动;农村地区资源配置效率相对稳定,但近年来综合技术效率有所下降;城镇化进程加剧了城乡学前教育资源配置不均衡,城市资源需求快速增长,而农村资源需求下降;未来学龄人口总体保持稳定,但城市地区将轻微增长,农村地区将减少。师资需求方面,城市地区对本科及以上学历教师的需求将增加,而农村地区则保持相对稳定。根据研究结果提出以下建议:第一,通过引入竞争机制,加强监管,实现资源共享和高效利用以优化资源配置;第二,通过加大农村学前教育资源投入,实施乡村教师支持计划,推进城乡教育一体化建设以应对城镇化挑战;第三,通过提高教师待遇,建立完善的培训体系,建立人才储备机制以满足不同地区对学前教育师资的不同需求。With the help of DEA-Malmquist index model and the multi-state population projection model,this paper analyzes in depth the impact of school-age population changes on the efficiency of urban and rural preschool education resource allocation,and predicts the future demand for teachers.The study found that the efficiency of preschool education resource allocation in urban areas is greatly affected by fluctuations in the school-age population,and there are fluctuations in pure technical efficiency;Resource allocation efficiency in rural areas is relatively stable,but combined technical efficiency has declined in recent years;The urbanization process has exacerbated the imbalance between urban and rural pre-school education resource allocation,with rapid growth in demand for urban resources and a decline in demand for rural resources;The school-age population will remain stable overall in the future,but will increase slightly in urban areas and decrease in rural areas.And in terms of teacher demand,the need for teachers with bachelor's degrees and above will increase in urban areas,while remaining relatively stable in rural areas.Based on the results of the study,the following recommendations are made.Firstly,through the introduction of a competitive mechanism and the strengthening of regulation,the sharing and efficient use of resources can be achieved in order to optimize the allocation of resources.Secondly,to promote the integration of urban and rural education in order to meet the challenges of urbanization by increasing the investment in rural pre-school education resources,implementing a support programme for rural teachers and promoting urban-rural education integration.Thirdly,by improving the remuneration of teachers,setting up a comprehensive training system and establishing a mechanism for reserving talents in order to meet the different needs of pre-school teachers in different regions.

关 键 词：学龄人口变化 学前教育资源配置 城乡差异 DEA-Malmquist指数模型 

分 类 号：G619.28[文化科学—学前教育学]