鄂北区域城市发展对人口出生率的影响——基于空间面板数据  

The Impact of Urban Development on the Birth Rate in Northern Hubei Region Based on Spatial Panel Data

作　　者：姚亦然 周景科 王华丽 卢方芳 YAO Yiran;ZHOU Jingke;WANG Huali;LU Fangfang(School of Mathematics and Statistics,Hubei University of Arts and Science,Xiangyang Hubei 441053)

机构地区：[1]湖北文理学院数学与统计学院,湖北襄阳441053

出　　处：《湖北理工学院学报》2025年第2期78-83,共6页Journal of Hubei Polytechnic University

基　　金：鄂北区域发展研究中心基地课题(项目编号:2024JDC27)。

摘　　要：采用熵值法与空间杜宾模型从经济建设、民生福祉、医疗与卫生教育3个维度深入分析研究了鄂北区域城市发展对人口出生率的综合影响。研究发现,经济建设在推动地区经济社会发展的同时,城市人口出生率下降,并对相邻地区的人口出生率产生了负面影响,但提升民生福祉水平和优化医疗教育资源对人口出生率具有显著的促进作用。这种积极影响能够跨越地域界限,对相邻地区产生正向的空间溢出效应。该研究结果不仅深化了对区域城市发展如何复杂作用于人口出生率机制的理解,也为地方政府规划区域发展蓝图与制定人口政策提供了宝贵的实证依据与策略启示。Adopting the entropy method and Spatial Durbin Model(SDM),this study systematically investigates the comprehensive impacts of urban development on birth rate in northern Hubei Province through three dimensions:economic construction,livelihood welfare,and medical-educational resources.Key findings reveal:while economic construction promotes local regional socio-economic development,it concurrently reduces local birth rates and exerts negative spillover effects on neighboring areas;enhanced livelihoods welfare and the optimized medical-educational resources significantly stimulate birth rates,with these positive effects transcending geographical boundaries to generate spatial spillover benefits for adjacent regions.This study not only deciphers the complex mechanism through which urban development influences birth rates but also provides empirical foundations and policy insights for regional development planning and population governance.

关 键 词：城市发展 人口出生率 空间杜宾模型 空间溢出效应 

分 类 号：O29[理学—应用数学]