生态与城市耦合的南宁市野火风险性评估  

Wildfire Risk Assessment for Ecological-urban Coupling in Nanning

作　　者：谢宗音 刘银涛 任超 王俊男 罗正 XIE Zongyin;LIU Yintao;REN Chao;WANG Junnan;LUO Zheng(Guangxi Institute of Remote Sensing Information,Nanning 530023,China;College of Geomatics and Geoinformation,Guilin University of Technology,Guilin,Guangxi 541004,China;Guangxi Key Laboratory of Spatial Information and Geomatics,Guilin,Guangxi 541004,China)

机构地区：[1]广西壮族自治区自然资源遥感院,南宁530023 [2]桂林理工大学测绘地理信息学院,广西桂林541004 [3]广西空间信息与测绘重点实验室,广西桂林541004

出　　处：《遥感信息》2025年第1期42-52,共11页Remote Sensing Information

基　　金：国家高分辨率对地观测系统重大专项(84-Y50G25-9001-22/23);国家自然科学基金(42064003);广西高校中青年教师科研基础能力提升项目(2021KY0268);广西空间信息与测绘重点实验室基金(16-380-25-25)。

摘　　要：针对现有野火风险性评估研究缺乏对生态环境与城市发展的全面考虑,导致评估结果不全面的问题,以广西南宁市为研究区域,提出了一种生态与城市耦合的野火风险性评估方法。首先,基于历史野火数据,利用人工神经网络(artificial neural network,ANN)模型并综合考虑多种影响因素,评估当地野火灾害的易发程度。其次,评估南宁市的生态环境质量和城市发展水平,构建并分析生态环境、城市发展、生态-城市耦合的易损性模型。最后,融合野火易发性和易损性模型,从生态、城市、生态-城市耦合3个维度评估野火灾害风险性。研究结果表明,基于ANN构建的野火易发性模型具有良好的预测性能,高易发区域占全域面积的50.82%。相较于单独考虑生态环境或城市发展,基于生态-城市耦合的易损性模型更全面准确地描述了灾害易损程度。基于生态-城市耦合的野火风险极高易发区占全域面积的28.58%,主要分布在研究区的西北部、中部、东部和南部,这些结果为野火灾害防治策略提供了可靠依据。Aiming at the problem that existing wildfire risk assessment studies lack comprehensive consideration of ecological environment and urban development,which leads to incomplete assessment results,a wildfire risk assessment method coupled with ecology and city is proposed with Nanning city,Guangxi as the study area.Firstly,based on the historical wildfire data,an artificial neural network(ANN)model is used to assess the vulnerability of the local wildfire disaster by taking into account a variety of influencing factors.Furthermore,it assesses the ecological environment quality and urban development level of Nanning city,constructing and analyzing vulnerability models related to ecological environment,urban development,and the coupling of ecology and urban factors.Finally,by integrating wildfire susceptibility and vulnerability models,the wildfire hazard risk is assessed from three dimensions,which are ecology,urban,and ecological-urban coupling.The research results indicate that the wildfire susceptibility model built on ANN has commendable predictive performance,with high-susceptibility areas accounting for 50.82%of the total area.Compared to solely considering the ecological environment or urban development,the vulnerability model based on ecological-urban coupling more comprehensively and accurately describes the vulnerability of the disaster.The extremely high-risk areas based on the ecological-urban coupling account for 28.58%of the total area,mainly distributed in the northwest,central,eastern,and southern parts of the study area.These findings provide a reliable basis for scientifically informed wildfire disaster prevention and mitigation strategies.

关 键 词：野火灾害 风险性评价 ANN模型 生态环境 城市发展 

分 类 号：X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治] S762[农业科学—森林保护学]