基于改进GM(1,1)模型的生鲜农产品冷链物流需求预测——以广东省为例  

Demand Forcast for Cold Chain Logistics of Fresh Agricultural Products Based on Improved GM(1,1)Model--A Case Study of Guangdong Province

作　　者：章桂永 王文娟 李文豪 黄虹 ZHANG Guiyong;WANG Wenjuan;LI Wenhao;HUANG Hong(Guangzhou College of Technology and Business,Guangzhou 510850,China)

机构地区：[1]广州工商学院,广东广州510850

出　　处：《物流科技》2025年第6期129-132,共4页Logistics Sci Tech

基　　金：广州工商学院校级立项课题“军民一体化背景下无人机应急配送体系运行机制研究”(KYZD202304)。

摘　　要：文章深入研究了GM(1,1)模型,从白化背景值和初始条件两个维度对其进行了创新性改进,并且利用这一优化模型对广东省生鲜农产品的冷链物流需求进行了精准预测,显著提升了预测精度。通过研究的预测结果,可以为广东省进一步推进冷链物流的高质量发展提供强有力的数据支撑,进而指导冷链物流设施布局合理化与资源配置优化。不仅能够显著提升冷链物流资源的利用效率,还能有效引导资本投入,明确市场发展方向,从而为广东省乃至整个冷链物流行业的可持续发展奠定更为坚实的基础。The paper conducted an in-depth study of the GM(1,1)model and innovatively improved it from two dimensions:whitening background value and initial conditions.Using this optimized model,the cold chain logistics demand for fresh agricultural products in Guangdong Province was accurately predicted,significantly improving the prediction accuracy.The predicted results of the research paper can provide strong data support for Guangdong Province to further improve the high-quality development of cold chain logistics,and guide the rationalization of cold chain logistics facility layout and optimization of resource allocation.It not only helps to improve the utilization efficiency of cold chain logistics resources,but also effectively guides capital investment and market development direction,laying a solid foundation for the sustainable development of Guangdong Province and even the entire cold chain logistics industry.

关 键 词：GM(1 1)模型 生鲜农产品 冷链物流 需求预测 

分 类 号：F252[经济管理—国民经济]