1990—2019年中国饮酒所致食管癌的疾病负担趋势及男女对比分析  

Trends in the disease burden of esophageal cancer attributable to alcohol consumption in China from 1990 to 2019 and a gender comparison analysis

作　　者：胡守财 杨成龙 马浩天 陶堰成 胡尕伟 李庆新 HU Shoucai;YANG Chenglong;MA Haotian;TAO Yancheng;HU Gawei;LI Qingxin(Department of Thoracic Surgery,The 940th Hospital of Joint Logistics Support Force of Chinese People’s Liberation Army,Lanzhou,730000,P.R.China;Highland Medicine Department,The 940th Hospital of Joint Logistics Support Force of Chinese People’s Liberation Army,Lanzhou,730050,P.R.China;The First Clinical Department of Gansu University of Traditional Chinese Medicine,Lanzhou,730000,P.R.China)

机构地区：[1]中国人民解放军联勤保障部队第九四〇医院普胸外科,兰州730000 [2]中国人民解放军联勤保障部队第九四〇医院高原医学科,兰州730050 [3]甘肃中医药大学第一临床医学院,兰州730000

出　　处：《中国胸心血管外科临床杂志》2025年第4期500-507,共8页Chinese Journal of Clinical Thoracic and Cardiovascular Surgery

基　　金：甘肃省卫生健康行业科技计划项目(GSWSKY2022-45);军队重大项目课题(2021yxky010);甘肃省自然科学基金项目(24JRRA006)。

摘　　要：目的整合分析1990—2019年中国饮酒所致食管癌的疾病负担及男女差异,并预测2020—2029年疾病负担变化趋势,以完善其防治策略。方法从2019全球疾病负担(GBD)数据库提取并整合分析中国1990—2019年饮酒所致食管癌的疾病负担数据,利用Joinpoint 4.9.1.0软件通过Joinpoint回归模型分析相应的变化趋势。利用灰色预测模型[G M(1,1)]预测2020—2029年中国饮酒所致食管癌的疾病负担状况。结果2019年中国归因于吸烟、饮酒、高体重指数、水果和蔬菜摄入不足的食管癌分别占2019年食管癌死亡数的第1~5位。从性别上看,2019年男性的死亡例数和标化死亡率分别是女性的18.97倍和20.00倍;2019年男性的伤残调整寿命年(disability-adjusted life years,DALYs)数和标化DALYs率分别是女性的33.08倍和24.78倍,提示中国男性饮酒所致食管癌的疾病负担更重。1990—2019年中国饮酒所致食管癌的死亡例数和DALYs数的平均年度变化百分比(annual average percentage change,AAPC)分别为2.08%、1.63%,均呈不断上升趋势,变化趋势有统计学意义(P均<0.05)。1990—2019年标化死亡率和标化DALYs率的AAPC值分别为–0.92%、–1.23%,呈不断下降趋势,变化趋势有统计学意义(P均<0.05)。1990—2019年各年龄组人群中,≥55岁人群是疾病负担的主要群体。灰色预测模型显示,至2029年总体标化死亡率和标化DALYs率分别下降至2.94/10万和67.94/10万,女性的下降程度大于男性。结论近30年来,中国饮酒所致食管癌的疾病负担虽有所减轻,但相较于食管癌整体的疾病负担下降程度仍较低,且男性疾病负担远高于女性。针对男性和老年人口重点防治仍是中国饮酒所致食管癌需要面临的主要问题。Objective To integrate and analyze the disease burden of esophageal cancer caused by alcohol consumption in China from 1990 to 2019,along with the differences between genders,and predict the trends in disease burden changes from 2020 to 2029 to improve prevention and treatment strategies.Methods The disease burden of esophageal cancer caused by alcohol consumption in China from 1990 to 2019 was extracted and integrated from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease(GBD)database,and the corresponding trend was analyzed using the Joinpoint regression model with Joinpoint 4.9.1.0 software.The gray prediction model[GM(1,1)]was used to forecast the disease burden of alcohol-related esophageal cancer in China from 2020 to 2029.Results In 2019,the leading causes of esophageal cancer in China were tobacco,alcohol,high body mass index,and insufficient fruit and vegetable intake,accounting for the first to fifth positions in esophageal cancer deaths.From a gender perspective,in 2019,the death number and standardized mortality rate for males were 18.97 times and 20.00 times higher than for females,respectively.The disability-adjusted life years(DALYs)and standardized DALYs rate for males were 33.08 times and 24.78 times higher than those for females,respectively,indicating a heavier disease burden of alcohol-related esophageal cancer among Chinese males.From 1990 to 2019,the average annual percentage change(AAPC)in deaths and DALYs due to alcohol-related esophageal cancer in China was 2.08%and 1.63%,respectively,showing a continuous upward trend with statistical significance(P<0.05).The AAPC values for standardized mortality rate and standardized DALYs rate from 1990 to 2019 were–0.92%and–1.23%,respectively,showing a continuous downward trend with statistical significance(P<0.05).The population aged≥55 years was the main group bearing the disease burden among all age groups from 1990 to 2019.The gray prediction model predicted that by 2029,the overall standardized mortality rate and standardized DALYs rate would decrease to 2

关 键 词：饮酒 食管癌 疾病负担 变化趋势 Joinpoint模型 

分 类 号：R735.1[医药卫生—肿瘤]