反洗钱监管对跨境资本流入的影响研究:基于金融发展的门槛效应  

A Study on the Impact of Anti-Money Laundering Regulations on Cross-Border Capital Inflows:A Threshold Effect Based on Financial Development

作　　者：李知睿 李羡 陈波[3] 计飞 Li Zhirui;Li Xian;Chen Bo;Ji Fei(Institute of Global and Area Studies,Capital Normal University;Guohong Asset Management Co.,Ltd.;Institute of Defence Economics and Management,Central University of Economics and Finance;Academy of International and Regional Studies,Guangdong University of Foreign Studies)

机构地区：[1]首都师范大学国别区域研究院 [2]国泓资产管理有限公司 [3]中央财经大学国防经济与管理研究院 [4]广东外语外贸大学区域国别研究院

出　　处：《国际金融研究》2025年第3期74-85,共12页Studies of International Finance

基　　金：国家社会科学基金青年项目“中国企业及人员海外利益安全风险防范和保护机制创新研究”(23CGJ012);中国博士后科学基金面上项目“‘一带一路’我国海外能源投资政治风险预警系统研究”(2023M734076);北京市教委高校高精尖学科“战略经济与军民融合”交叉学科支持项目(GJJ2019163)资助。

摘　　要：金融一体化背景下全球金融发展带来跨境资本流入加速扩张,跨境交易中滋生的洗钱犯罪将对国家的投资声誉和金融秩序构成威胁,一国反洗钱(AML)监管系统有效性在完善洗钱治理和吸引外资中发挥关键作用。本文基于179个国家2011—2020年的数据构建面板门槛模型,研究金融发展条件下AML监管对跨境资本流入的门槛效应及影响渠道,发现AML监管对跨境资本流入存在正向门槛效应,且仅当金融发展水平跨越一定门槛时效应显著。影响渠道分析表明,AML监管通过制度质量和通信基础设施两条渠道正向影响跨境资本流入,但仅对低金融发展水平门槛区间的国家作用显著,对高金融发展水平门槛区间的国家效果有限。中国应提升金融发展水平,完善AML治理体系,平衡AML通信基础设施的“双刃剑”作用,加强国际协同洗钱治理,监测、引导跨境资金健康、有序流动。In the context of increasing financial integration,global financial development(FD)has accelerated the expansion of cross-border capital flows(CCF),which in turn has led to an increase in money laundering(ML)crimes,exerting negative impact on countries'investment reputation and financial order.The effectiveness of a country's anti-money laundering(AML)system plays a crucial role in enhancing ML governance and attracting foreign investment.Based on data from 179 countries between 2011 and 2020,this paper establishes a panel threshold model to examine the threshold effect of AML regulations on CCF and their influencing channels amidst financial development.The study finds that AML regulations have a positive threshold effect on CCF,contingent upon varying levels of FD across countries,with significant impact observed only when FD exceeds a certain threshold value.The influencing mechanisms indicate that,based on the endogenous threshold grouping of financial development,AML regulations further positively affect CCF through two channels:institutional quality and communication infrastructure.Specifically,these two influencing channels have significant effects only on countries in the low FD threshold range,while the impact on countries in the high FD threshold range is limited.The insight from this study suggests that China should prioritize enhancing domestic FD levels,establish and refine the AML governance framework,manage the dual role of telecommunication infrastructure in AML efforts,collaborate globally to govern ML crimes,and guide the healthy flow of cross-border funds.

关 键 词：反洗钱监管 跨境资本流入 金融发展 门槛效应 渠道分析 

分 类 号：F831[经济管理—金融学]