资源型城市生态系统弹性力时空演变与预测——以焦作市为例  

Temporal and spatial evolution and prediction of ecosystem resilience of resource-based urban ecosystems:a case study of Jiaozuo City

作　　者：白帅 崔许锋[1] 吴金华 王祯 BAI Shuai;CUI Xufeng;WU Jinhua;WANG Zhen(School of Business Administration,Zhongnan University of Economics and Law,Wuhan 430073,China;School of Land Engineering,Chang’an University,Xi’an 710054,China)

机构地区：[1]中南财经政法大学工商管理学院,武汉430200 [2]长安大学土地工程学院,西安710054

出　　处：《生态科学》2025年第1期88-99,共12页Ecological Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(31170664)。

摘　　要：良好的生态系统弹性力是有效应对风险挑战,实现城市稳定发展的重要保障,尤其是对于资源型城市而言至关重要。在Fragstats、IDRISI等软件的技术支持下,采用生态系统弹性力模型综合分析了1990—2018年焦作市生态系统弹性力的时空分异特征,并利用CA-Markov模型对焦作市2026年生态系统弹性力进行预测。研究结果表明:①研究期内焦作市的生态系统弹性强度、弹性限度及生态系统弹性力均表现为趋于改善的态势,但发展过程中存在明显波动;②预测至2026年,焦作市生态系统弹性力状况将得到进一步优化,中等弹性力区及强弹性力区空间分布进一步扩张,弱弹性力区空间分布进一步缩减。不合理的发展方式给城市生态系统造成了严重威胁,同时也制约着城市经济社会的可持续发展,积极推动经济转型是焦作市等资源型城市实现高质量、可持续发展的关键举措。Good ecosystem resilience is an important guarantee for effectively coping with risks and challenges and achieving stable urban development,especially for resource-based cities.This paper takes Jiaozuo,a typical resource-exhausted city,as an example.With the technical support of Fragstats,IDRISI and other software,this paper used the ecosystem resilience model to comprehensively analyze the spatiotemporal differentiation characteristics of Jiaozuo's ecosystem resilience from 1990 to 2018.And the CA-Markov model was used to predict the ecosystem resilience of Jiaozuo City in 2026.The results showed that:during the study period,the resilience strength,resilience limit and resilience of the ecosystem in Jiaozuo tended to improve,but there were obvious fluctuations in the development process.It is predicted that by 2026,the state of ecosystem resilience in Jiaozuo will be further optimized,and the spatial distribution of medium and strong resilience will further expand,while the spatial distribution of weak resilience will further decrease.The unreasonable development mode poses a serious threat to the urban ecosystem,and also restricts the sustainable development of urban economy and society.Actively promoting economic transformation is a key measure for resource-based cities such as Jiaozuo to achieve high-quality and sustainable development.

关 键 词：资源型城市 生态系统弹性力 时空分异特征 预测 

分 类 号：X24[环境科学与工程—环境科学]