1990~2021年中国女性乳腺癌疾病负担趋势及危险因素分析  

Disease Burden Trends and Risk Factors of Breast Cancer in Chinese Women from 1990 to 2021

作　　者：鲍娇玉 刘存 陈文君 马晓东[3] 李向云 Bao Jiaoyu;Liu Cun;Chen Wenjun;Ma Xiaodong;Li Xiangyun(School of Public Health,Shandong Second Medical University,Weifang 261053,Shandong,China;School of Traditional Chinese Medicine,Shandong Second Medical University,Weifang 261053,Shandong,China;Department of Breast Surgery,Weifang Hospital of Traditional Chinese Medicine,Weifang 261000,Shandong,China)

机构地区：[1]山东第二医科大学公共卫生学院,山东潍坊261053 [2]山东第二医科大学中医学院,山东潍坊261053 [3]潍坊市中医院乳腺外科,山东潍坊261000

出　　处：《肿瘤预防与治疗》2025年第2期98-106,共9页Journal of Cancer Control And Treatment

基　　金：山东省自然科学基金(编号:ZR2024QH052)。

摘　　要：目的:基于全球疾病负担数据2021分析中国女性乳腺癌疾病负担,并与全球情况进行对比,为我国相关公共卫生政策以及防治策略的制定提供参考依据。方法:从全球疾病负担数据库中检索1990年至2021年中国和全球女性乳腺癌的数据,采用标化发病率、标化死亡率、标化伤残调整寿命年分析我国及全球女性乳腺癌疾病负担情况及危险因素。采用Joinpoint模型计算年度变化百分比和平均年度变化百分比(average annual percentage change,AAPC)分析疾病负担变化趋势。采取ARIMA模型预测2022年至2036年女性乳腺癌的统计数据。采用分解分析方法进一步分析癌症负担变化的驱动因素。结果:1990~2021年中国女性乳腺癌的标化发病率增加到37.00/10万(AAPC=2.42,95%CI:2.24~2.60),标化死亡率降低到8.24/10万(AAPC=-0.29,95%CI:-0.44~-0.14),残疾调整生命年(disability-adjusted life years,DALYs)率下降了6.67%。病例最多的年龄组为50~54岁,其次为45~49岁、55~59岁。预测显示,至2036年中国女性乳腺癌发病率将增至46.00/10万,死亡率将下降至8.17/10万,主要危险因素包括高红肉摄入(致死影响为1.13%)、高体质指数(对DALYs影响达14.39%)等。分解分析显示,发病率增长主要由流行病学变化(79.95%)和人口增长(25.09%)驱动,老龄化和人口增长是死亡率下降的促进因素。结论:近年来中国女性乳腺癌标化发病率呈上升趋势,但标化死亡率和DALYs率有所降低。根据预测,至2036年中国女性乳腺癌的发病率呈现增长态势,但死亡率有望继续下降。乳腺癌防治重点可侧重45~59岁年龄段的女性筛查,控制高红肉摄入、高体质指数等危险因素,倡导健康的生活方式和饮食习惯。Objective:To analyze the disease burden of breast cancer in Chinese women and compared it with the global situation based on the Global Burden of Disease(GBD)Data 2021,so as to provide evidence for the formulation of relevant public health policies and prevention and treatment strategies in China.Methods:We retrieved the data of female breast cancer in China and the world from 1990 to 2021 from the GBD database.The disease burden and risk factors of female breast cancer in China and the world were analyzed by standardized incidence,standardized mortality and standardized disability-adjusted life years(DALYs).The Joinpoint model was used to calculate the annual percentage change(APC)and average annual percentage change(AAPC)to analyze the trend of disease burden.The autoregressive integrated moving average model was adopted to predict the statistics of breast cancer in women from 2022 to 2036.The driving factors of cancer burden change were further analyzed by decomposition analysis.Results:From 1990 to 2021,the standardized incidence of breast cancer in Chinese women increased to 37.00/100,000(AAPC=2.42,95%CI:2.24~2.60),the standardized mortality rate decreased to 8.24/105(AAPC=-0.29,95%CI:-0.44~-0.14),and the DALYs rate decreased by 6.67%.The age group with the highest number of cases was 50~54 years,followed by 45~49 years and 55~59 years.It was predicted that by 2036,the incidence rate would increase to 46.00 per 105 and the mortality rate would decrease to 8.17 per 105;the main risk factors included high red meat intake(contributing to 1.13%of mortality rate)and high body mass index(contributing to 14.39%of DALYs rate).The decomposition analysis showed that the increase in incidence was mainly driven by epidemiological changes(79.95%)and population growth(25.09%),and aging and population growth were the contributing factors to the decline in mortality.Conclusion:In recent years,the standardized incidence of breast cancer in Chinese women has increased,but the standardized mortality rate and DALYs rate have de

关 键 词：女性乳腺癌 发病 死亡 预测 危险因素 中国 

分 类 号：R737.9[医药卫生—肿瘤]