基于多变量GERT的复杂装备研制进度控制方法及应用  

Schedule control method and application for complex equipment development based on multivariate GERT

作　　者：刘勇[1] 张静怡 王朱程 赵焕焕 LIU Yong;ZHANG Jing-yi;WANG Zhu-cheng;ZHAO Huan-huan(School of Business,Jiangnan University,Wuxi 214122,China;School of Management,Wuxi Institute of Technology,Wuxi 214121,China)

机构地区：[1]江南大学商学院,江苏无锡214122 [2]无锡职业技术学院管理学院,江苏无锡214121

出　　处：《控制与决策》2025年第3期963-972,共10页Control and Decision

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(19FGLB031);江苏省社会科学优秀青年项目;江苏省青蓝工程培养对象;数字化学习技术集成与应用教育部工程研究中心创新基金项目(1321005);青海省社会科学基金项目(23YQA-003);无锡市科协软科学研究课题(KX-24-A15).

摘　　要：研制进度管理是复杂装备项目的重要工作之一,合理的进度计划和调控措施能够保证项目研制成功和及时交付.然而,研制进度受到工期、成本、客户需求等众多因素的影响和制约,并且这些因素呈现一定的不确定性.为描述和解决此类进度控制问题,考虑到工期、成本等变量的不确定性和客户质量需求的满足程度,利用区间数、随机网络(GERT)、优化模型等理论和方法,构建了基于多变量随机网络的复杂装备研制进度控制方法.首先,考虑到工期、成本、质量价值等变量的不确定性,将区间数引入随机网络,并考虑客户质量价值需求,定义了基于区间数的多变量随机网络,分析了复杂装备质量价值与产品质量水平和研制成本之间的内在联系,进而提出产品质量价值的量化表达式;其次,鉴于工期、成本和质量价值之间的交互效应,构建复杂装备研制的工期-成本-质量价值多目标优化模型,并使用多目标遗传算法(NSGA-Ⅱ)设计求解策略;最后,通过实际案例充分验证模型的有效性与合理性.Development schedule management is a pivotal aspect of complex equipment projects,and reasonable schedule planning and control measures can ensure the success of project development and timely delivery.However,the development schedule is affected and constrained by many factors,such as schedule,cost,customer requirements,etc.,and these factors show a certain degree of uncertainty.To describe and solve this kind of schedule control problem,taking into account the uncertainty of variables such as schedule and cost and the degree of satisfaction of customer's quality requirements,a multivariate stochastic network-based schedule control method for complex equipment development is constructed by using theories and methods such as interval number,random networks(GERT)and optimization models.Firstly,considering the uncertainty of duration,cost and quality value,the interval number is introduced into the random network,and considering the customer's quality value demand,the multivariate random network based on the interval number is defined,and the intrinsic connection between the quality value of complex equipment and the product quality level and the development cost is analyzed,and then the quantitative expression for the product quality value is put forward.Then,in view of the interaction effect among schedule,cost and quality value,a multi-objective optimization model of schedule-cost-quality value for complex equipment development is constructed,and a solution strategy is designed by using the multi-objective genetic algorithm(NSGA-Ⅱ).Finally,the validity and reasonableness of the model are fully verified by actual cases.

关 键 词：复杂装备研制 进度控制 多变量 GERT网络 质量价值 不确定性 

分 类 号：F25[经济管理—国民经济]