依托市场规模破解全球价值链低端锁定困局——基于中国咖啡产业的案例研究  

Breaking the Low-End Lock-in of the Coffee Global Value Chain via China's Home Market Effects:A Case Study and Empirical Analysis on the Coffee Industry

作　　者：胡颖 熊显鑫 陈洁筠 Hu Ying;Xiong Xianxin;Chen Jieyun

机构地区：[1]云南大学经济学院 [2]北京大学光华管理学院 [3]厦门大学邹至庄经济研究院

出　　处：《南方经济》2025年第3期117-141,共25页South China Journal of Economics

基　　金：云南省哲学社会科学规划区域国别研究重大项目(ZDZB202503);云南省中青年学术和技术带头人后备人才项目(202405AC350109);云南省省院省校教育合作人文社会科学研究一般项目(SYSX202402)的资助。

摘　　要：党的二十大报告提出“加快建设农业强国”,中国具备咖啡种植生产的自然禀赋和消费的市场规模优势,但长期陷于全球价值链低端锁定困境。通过对占中国咖啡产量98%的云南咖啡产区进行调研,并对政府、咖农、科研院所、咖啡行业协会及咖啡交易中心等相关主体开展半结构化访谈,运用三级编码方法进行逻辑迭代分析,研究发现中国咖啡产业在全球价值链嵌入过程中呈现由低阶原料输出向高阶品牌转化的动态演化轨迹,其关键机制是国内大市场需求侧牵引咖啡产区精品化种植和产业链优化的供给侧升级,实现价值创造,从而突破低端锁定困局。实证检验基于全球咖啡贸易数据测算出口技术复杂度和估计动态面板模型结果,印证了研究假设。异质性分析发现以中国为代表的新兴消费国兼具本地市场规模和结构效应,传统消费国只具备市场规模效应,而咖啡种植国不存在本地市场效应。文章为中国咖啡产业充分利用我国独有的大市场优势破解价值链低端锁定困境提供了理论依据和现实参照,对充分激发需求优势、扫清产业发展障碍具有重要的借鉴意义。The report of the 20th CPC National Congress proposes to"accelerate the construction of a strong agricultural country".China has the natural endowment of coffee planting and production and the advantage of market scale in consumption,but has long been trapped in the low-end of the global value chain.By visiting the production areas that account for 98%of China′s coffee production,conducting semi-structured interviews with the government,coffee farmers,research institutes,coffee industry associations,coffee trading centers,etc.,and applying the three-level coding methodology to carry out logical iteration,the study finds that China′s coffee industry has shown a dynamic evolutionary trajectory in the process of embedding itself in the global value chain from the export of low-ranking raw materials to the transformation of high-ranking brands,and the key mechanism is the traction of the domestic large market demand side,pulling the supply side upgrading of coffee producing areas with boutique planting and industry chain optimization,realizing value creation and breaking through the lowend locking predicament.The reliability test is based on the global coffee trade data to measure the export technical complexity and estimate the results of the dynamic panel model,which confirms the research hypotheses,and the heterogeneity analysis finds that the emerging consuming countries represented by China have both the home market scale and structural effects,while the traditional consuming countries only have the market scale effect,and the coffee-growing countries do not have the home market effect.This paper provides a theoretical basis and practical reference for China′s coffee industry to make full use of China′s unique advantages of the large market to crack the value chain locking dilemma,and it is of great significance to fully stimulate the demand advantage and clear the obstacles to industrial development.

关 键 词：全球价值链 本地市场效应 咖啡产业 农产品贸易 

分 类 号：F310[经济管理—产业经济]