基于动态物质流的北京市城乡住房建筑垃圾产生量模拟预测  

Simulation and prediction of construction and demolition waste from urban and rural housing in Beijing based on dynamic material flow analysis

作　　者：董莉[1] 刘景洋[1] 张泽乾 张敏 DONG Li;LIU Jing-yang;ZHANG Ze-qian;ZHANG Min(Key Laboratory of Eco-industry of Ministry of Ecology and Environment,Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences,Beijing 100012,China;School of Environmental Science and Engineering,Southwest Jiaotong University,Chengdu 611756,China)

机构地区：[1]中国环境科学研究院生态环境部生态工业重点实验室,北京100012 [2]西南交通大学环境科学与工程学院,四川成都611756

出　　处：《中国环境科学》2025年第4期2041-2052,共12页China Environmental Science

基　　金：中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费专项(2024YSKY-39)。

摘　　要：为促进住房建筑垃圾减量化和资源化利用,以北京市为例,构建住房建筑动态物质流模型,模拟1949~2100年北京市城镇和农村地区住房建筑流量-存量动态演变特征,预测城乡住房建筑垃圾产生量.结果表明,1949~2100年北京市城镇和农村地区住房建筑新建和拆除量均周期性波动趋势,住房建筑存量大体呈现“S”型曲线趋势.城镇和农村的住房新建面积分别于2012年和2015年达到最大峰值3145.6和788.7万m^(2),住房拆除面积分别于2094年和2016年达到最大峰值1500.8和453.5万m^(2),住房存量饱和值分别为8.0亿m^(2)和124.7万m^(2).至21世纪中后期,北京市将迎来建筑垃圾产量高峰期,并保持高位波动.建筑垃圾的最大峰值出现在2094年,总产量为2396.4万t.城镇和农村地区住房建筑垃圾中,水泥、砖块、沙子和碎石等是建筑垃圾中重量占比最大的成分,分别占住房建筑垃圾总重量的90.2%~95.5%和92.2%~94.1%,钢铁的重量占比分别为0.1%~4.5%和0.1%~3.0%.建筑长寿命情景可延迟住房建筑拆除高峰的到来,最大减量潜力为72.0%;将建筑垃圾作为城市矿产回收利用,最高可减少未来98.5%的原生钢铁需求.To promote the reduction and recycling of construction and demolition(C&D)waste in housing,a dynamic material flow model was established to simulate the evolving characteristics of housing flow-stock in both urban and rural areas of Beijing from 1949 to 2100.The amount of urban and rural housing C&D waste generated was predicted.The results showed that from 1949 to 2100,cyclical fluctuations were observed in the volume of new construction and demolition of housing in Beijing’s urban and rural areas,with the housing stock following an S-shaped curve.The area of new housing construction in urban and rural regions peaked at 31.456million m^(2)in 2012 and 7.887 million m^(2)in 2015,while the demolition area reached its maximum of 15.008 million m^(2)in 2094 and 4.535 million m^(2)in 2016.The saturation values of housing stock in urban and rural areas were 800 and 1.247 million m^(2),respectively.By the mid-to-late 21 st century,Beijing was anticipated to experience a surge in C&D waste generation,which will reach its peak and then persist at elevated levels with periodic fluctuations.The apex of C&D waste generation was projected to occur in 2094,with an estimated total output of 23.964 million tons.Cement,brick,sand,and gravel were the predominant components of C&D waste by weight,accounting for 90.2%~95.5%of the total weight of housing C&D waste in urban areas and 92.2%~94.1%of that in rural areas,while the weight proportion of iron and steel ranged from 0.1%to 4.5%and 0.1%to 3.0%,respectively.The long-lifetime scenario could defer the peak of C&D waste,with a maximum reduction potential of 72.0%.Additionally,recycling C&D waste as urban minerals could lead to a dramatic decrease in future demand for primary steel,with a reduction of up to 98.5%.

关 键 词：动态物质流 流量-存量 物质代谢 建筑垃圾 城市矿产 

分 类 号：X24[环境科学与工程—环境科学]