碳中和情景下我国CO_(2)与O_(3)前体物协同减排特征分析  

Analysis on the characteristics of synergistic reduction of CO_(2)and O_(3)precursors emissions in China under carbon-neutral scenario

作　　者：金宇翔 侯雪伟[1] 洪蕾 赵天良[1] 周逸超 JIN Yu-xiang;HOU Xue-wei;HONG Lei;ZHAO Tian-liang;ZHOU Yi-chao(Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters,Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster,Ministry of Education,Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change,Key Laboratory for Aerosol-Cloud-Precipitation of China Meteorological Administration,Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology,Nanjing 210044,China;Nanjing Institute of Environmental Sciences,Ministry of Ecology and Environment,Nanjing 210000,China)

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学,气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心,气象灾害教育部重点实验室,气候与环境变化国际合作联合实验室,中国气象局气溶胶与云降水重点开放实验室,江苏南京210044 [2]生态环境部南京环境科学研究所,江苏南京210000

出　　处：《中国环境科学》2025年第4期2230-2239,共10页China Environmental Science

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2022YFC3701204);安徽省重点研究与开发计划项目(2022h11020008)。

摘　　要：基于中国未来排放动态评估模型(DPEC)预估的排放清单,分析了碳中和情景下二氧化碳(CO_(2))、挥发性有机物(VOCs)和氮氧化物(NO_(x))的人为排放时空变化特征,并与共享社会经济路径(SSP)中两个SSP1情景进行对比.研究结果表明,在DPEC碳中和情景中,我国CO_(2)人为排放在2030年达峰,2060年相比2020年将减排91%,减排量介于两个SSP情景(SSP1-1.9和SSP1-2.6)预估值之间.VOCs和NO_(x)的人为排放量自2020年起呈持续下降趋势,直至2060年分别减排65%和88%.相较两个SSP情景,DPEC中VOCs减排偏弱而NO_(x)减排偏强.不同行业源对减排的贡献及其空间分布也存在差异,CO_(2)减排主要来自电力源和工业源,VOCs和NO_(x)交通源减排较明显,2060年工业源排放将成为CO_(2),VOCs和NO_(x)的最主要来源.总体而言,DPEC碳中和情景更为贴近我国未来减排趋势,在相关行业按期达成减排目标的前提下可以体现协同减排特征.The study investigates the spatio-temporal dynamics of anthropogenic emissions in China under a carbon-neutral scenario,with a focus on synergistic reductions in carbon dioxide(CO_(2)),volatile organic compounds(VOCs),and nitrogen oxides(NO_(x)).Using the Dynamic Projection model for Emissions in China(DPEC),emissions trends were analyzed and compared with two Shared Socio-economic Pathway(SSP)scenarios(SSP1-1.9 and SSP1-2.6).The findings reveal that under the DPEC carbon-neutral scenario,CO_(2)emissions will peak by 2030 and decrease by 91%by 2060 relative to 2020 levels.Emissions of VOCs and NO_(x)show continuous reductions since 2020,with declines of 65%and 88%,respectively,by 2060.Compared to the two SSP scenarios,the DPEC scenario shows a weaker reduction in VOCs but a stronger reduction in NO_(x).Sectoral analysis highlights that CO_(2)reductions primarily stem from the energy and industrial sectors,whereas the transportation sector drives notable decreases in VOCs and NO_(x).By 2060,the industrial sector will remain the dominant source of emissions for CO_(2),VOCs,and NO_(x).The results suggest that the DPEC carbon-neutral scenario aligns closely with China's future emission reduction trends,demonstrating significant potential for synergistic emission reductions.Achieving these targets on schedule will require robust policy implementation and sectoral commitment,offering substantial improvements in air quality and environmental outcomes.

关 键 词：碳中和情景 人为排放 DPEC SSP 

分 类 号：X511[环境科学与工程—环境工程]