不同中断程度下新能源汽车动力电池供应链动态影响研究  

Research on the Dynamic Impact of New Energy Vehicle Power Battery Supply Chain Under Different Degrees of Disruption

作　　者：李佳佳 李芳[1] 李楠楠[1] LI Jiajia;LI Fang;LI Nannan(School of Management,University of Shanghai for Science and Technology,Shanghai 200082,China)

机构地区：[1]上海理工大学管理学院,上海200082

出　　处：《湖南工业大学学报》2025年第4期57-65,共9页Journal of Hunan University of Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(72271164);上海市软科学研究基金资助重点项目(19692104000)。

摘　　要：新能源汽车的快速发展导致对锂电池的需求量不断增长,现有可利用锂资源和开采技术在未来存在供应缺口。为防患于未然,运用系统动力学对未来存在中断风险的新能源汽车动力电池供应链进行研究,考虑3种不同程度的中断情景,以“库存水平”“交付订单量”“利润”为衡量指标,量化锂矿石供应中断后产生的动态影响。研究结果表明:距离中断环节最近的节点,3个指标会最早受到影响;当中断发生时间过长时,供应链末端节点的“交付订单量”“利润”水平下降程度最为严重;中断发生造成供应链下游企业利润水平初期出现上涨现象,但在中断结束后长时间内无法回到初始水平,其他指标经过时间调控都可自行恢复。Due to the rapid development of new energy vehicles,there is a continuous increase in demand for lithium batteries,resulting in a supply gap in the current available lithium resources and mining technologies in the future.In view of potential disruptions,system dynamics is employed for an investigation of the supply chain of new energy vehicle power batteries with disruption risks in the future,with three different degrees of disruption scenarios taken into consideration,while the dynamic impact of lithium ore supply interruption is quantified by using“inventory level”,“delivery order volume”,and“profit”as measurement indicators.The research results indicate that the node nearest to the disruption link will exert the earliest impact on the three indicators.When the disruption duration is excessively prolonged,there will be the most severe decline in the levels of“delivery order quantity”and“profit”at the end nodes of the supply chain.The disruption initially leads to an increase in the profit levels of downstream enterprises within the supply chain,but they are unable to return to their initial level for a long time when the disruption ends,while other indicators can recover on their own after time regulation.

关 键 词：供应链中断 中断影响 新能源汽车动力电池 锂矿石 系统动力学 

分 类 号：F274[经济管理—企业管理]