气候变化条件下馆陶县浅层地下水水位影响预估  

Impact Prediction of Shallow Groundwater Level in Guantao County Under Climate Change

作　　者：王宗汉 初海波 张晓凯 吴劲 WANG Zong-han;CHU Hai-bo;ZHANG Xiao-kai;WU Jin(Beijing University of Technology,Beijing 100124,China;Hebei Geo-Environment Monitoring,Shijiazhuang 050000,Hebei Province,China)

机构地区：[1]北京工业大学,北京100124 [2]河北省地质环境监测院,河北石家庄050000

出　　处：《中国农村水利水电》2025年第4期150-156,共7页China Rural Water and Hydropower

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(42207070);北京市教委项目(KM202210005021)。

摘　　要：地下水资源是水资源的重要组成部分。近年来,气候变化对地下水的影响愈发显著。利用研究区降水、地下水埋深和钻孔数据,结合研究区的水文地质情况,建立地下水数值模型,采用CMIP6发布的未来降雨数据,通过统计降尺度的方法进行处理后得到研究区未来降雨数据,进一步通过线型放缩法和分位数映射法进行偏差校正,选择校正效果较好的降雨数据输入模型,预测不同气候情景下(SSP126、SSP245、SSP585)研究区地下水位的响应情况,以期为研究区地下水资源的开发利用提供一定的科学依据。结果显示:CMIP6原始降雨数据降尺度后仍存在一定误差,经过线性放缩法处理后与研究区实测数据拟合较好。对比研究区多年平均降雨,3种模式下研究区未来年均降水量均有所增加,SSP126模式下增加7.7%,SSP245模式下增加1.2%,SSP585模式下增加6.9%。通过建立的MODFLOW模型,预测研究区不同气候情景(SSP126、SSP245、SSP585)下未来地下水水位,不同气候情景下研究区地下水水位变化趋势相近,从空间上来看,3种气候模式下预测的地下水水位均呈现出东北部较高、西南部较低的分布态势。从时间上来看,2022-2075年3种气候模式下研究区地下水水位变化均为西北部地区和东北部地区呈现显著上升趋势,东南部地区呈现下降趋势,南部地区地下水水位略有上升,西部地区出现地下水水位显著上升的小范围区域。Groundwater resources are an important part of water resources.In recent years,the influence of climate change on groundwater has gained increasing significance.This study establishes a numerical model for groundwater based on precipitation,groundwater depth,and borehole data specific to the study area,while considering its hydrogeological characteristics.Future rainfall data from CMIP6 is processed using statistical downscaling methods to obtain projected rainfall data for the study area.Further deviation correction is performed using both linear shrinkage and quantile mapping techniques.The rainfall input model with superior correction effectiveness is selected to predict the response of groundwater levels under different climate scenarios(SSP126,SSP245,SSP585),thereby providing a scientific basis for sustainable development and utilization of groundwater resources in this region.The findings reveal that there are certain discrepancies in the original downscaled rainfall data from CMIP6;however,employing a linear reduction method yields good agreement with measured data within the research area.Compared to the average annual rainfall observed in this region,all three models project an increase:7.7% under SSP126 model,1.2% under SSP245 model,and 6.9% under SSP585 model.Utilizing the established MODFLOW modeling techniques enables us to predict future groundwater levels across various climate scenarios(SSP126,SSP245,SSP585),revealing similar trends for changes in groundwater levels within each scenario.From a spatial point of view,higher predicted groundwater levels are observed in northeastern regions while lower levels prevail in southwestern areas throughout all three climate models considered here.From a temporal point of view(from 2022 to 2075),significant upward trends are evident for changes in groundwater level within northwestern and northeastern regions;conversely downward trends occur within southeastern regions along with slight increases noted for southern areas as well as localized substantial incre

关 键 词：地下水水位预测 未来情景 降水修正 CMIP6 MODFLOW 

分 类 号：P345[天文地球—水文科学] TV125[天文地球—地球物理学]