基于LEAP模型的农业活动碳排放情景预测与减排路径分析  

Scenario Prediction and Emission Reduction Path Analysis of Agricultural Carbon Emissions Based on LEAP Model

作　　者：何志斌 郝英杰 王盼 姬成岗[1] 韦宗伯 姜永利 HE Zhi-bin;HAO Ying-jie;WANG Pan;JI Cheng-gang;WEI Zong-bo;JIANG Yong-li(Yunan Appraisal Center for Ecological and Environmental Engineering,Kunming 650228,China;Kunming University of Science and Technology,Kunming 650500,China)

机构地区：[1]云南省生态环境工程评估中心,云南昆明650228 [2]昆明理工大学环境科学与工程学院,云南昆明650500

出　　处：《环境科技》2025年第2期56-61,共6页Environmental Science and Technology

基　　金：云南省级决策咨询研究课题(ZFKKT-2021-060).

摘　　要：建立云南省农业领域碳排放LEAP模型,设定了基准与低碳2种情景模式,预测了2020年至2035年农业领域碳排放量及排放趋势,通过碳排放结构分析碳排放的主要与次要碳源成分,提出了农业领域碳减排路径。基准情景2031年实现碳达峰,峰值约为403万t;低碳情景2030年达到峰值,峰值为392万t。碳排放贡献量从大到小依次为化肥>农膜>农药>农用能源的使用>秸秆的燃料化利用;低碳情景下化肥、农药使用产生的碳排放均呈现下降的趋势,降幅分别为7.46%和1.05%,秸秆利用和农膜使用的碳排放相对稳定,农用能源消费的碳排放为上升趋势,涨幅6.53%。减排路径关键在于化肥、农药的减量使用,农膜的资源化循环利用以及农业生产对化石能源的合理分配与光伏能源的开发利用。The LEAP model o f agricultural carbon emission in Yunnan Province was studied and established,and two scenario models,baseline and low-carbon,were set up to predict the carbon emission and emission trend in the agricultural sector from 2020 to 2035.The carbon emission structure was used to analyze the main and secondary carbon source components of carbon emissions,and the carbon emission reduction path in the agricultural sector was proposed.The baseline scenario will reach the peak of carbon in 2031,with a peak of about 0.0403 million tons,and the low-carbon scenario will reach the peak in 2030,with a peak of 0.0392 million tons.From the largest to the smallest,the contribution of carbon emission is chemical fertilizer,agricultural film,pesticide,agricultural energy use and straw fuel utilization.Under the low-carbon scenario,the carbon emissions from fertilizer and pesticide use showed a downward trend,decreasing by 7.46%and 1.05%,respectively.The carbon emissions from straw utilization and agricultural film use were relatively stable,and the carbon emissions from agricultural energy consumption showed an upward trend,increasing by 6.53%.The key path of emission reduction lies in the reduction of chemical fertilizers and pesticides,the recycling of agricultural film resources,the rational distribution of fossil energy in agricultural production and the development and utilization of photovoltaic energy.

关 键 词：LEAP模型 碳排放 预测分析 

分 类 号：X2[环境科学与工程—环境科学]