青藏高原西藏嵩草潜在适宜生境评价及对气候变化的响应  

Evaluation on Potential Suitable Habitats of Carex Tibetikobresia and Its Responses to Climate Change in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

作　　者：张亮 魏彦强[2] 李小刚[1] 支泽民 ZHANG Liang;WEI Yanqiang;LIAO Xiaogang;ZHI Zemin(Gansu Liancheng National Nature Reserve Administration,Lanzhou 730300,China;Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing of Gansu Province,Northwest Institute of Eco-Environmental Resources,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Lanzhou 730000,China;College of Geography,Qinghai Normal University,Xining 810008,China)

机构地区：[1]甘肃连城国家级自然保护区管理局,甘肃兰州730000 [2]中国科学院西北生态环境研究院甘肃省遥感重点实验室,甘肃兰州730000 [3]青海师范大学地理科学学院,青海西宁810008

出　　处：《高原科学研究》2025年第1期1-11,共11页Plateau Science Research

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(22BJY136)。

摘　　要：该研究以青藏高原高寒草甸重要建群种西藏嵩草为研究对象,运用MaxEnt模型,基于83个西藏嵩草样本点数据和6个环境因子构建模型,模拟预测当前和2050年、2070年分别在RCP2.6、RCP4.5、RCP8.5等3种不同情景下西藏嵩草生境范围,并通过ArcGIS10.5对其潜在生境适宜性进行评价。结果表明:MaxEnt模型能准确模拟预测西藏嵩草生境范围;海拔和年均温是影响其生长的主要因子,海拔3500~4000 m、年均温4.5℃左右的地区是潜在适宜生境分布区;当前基准期西藏嵩草潜在适宜生境主要分布在青藏高原东部、南部及东南部区域,总面积126.656×10~4km^(2),约占青藏高原总面积的48.71%;未来不同气候情景下,潜在适宜生境分布范围大于当前适宜生境范围,并且不同等级适宜生境呈现时空差异性。青藏高原植被对气候变化的响应敏感且脆弱,西藏嵩草时空分布主要向西部、西北方向的青藏高原腹地扩张,不同气候情景下未来潜在适宜生境存在一定退化区域,西藏那曲、日喀则等地区退化较为严重。建议对西藏嵩草集中退化敏感区域加强关注和保护。In this study,Carex tibetikobresia the dominant species of alpine meadows in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is taken as the research object.The MaxEnt model was used to simulate and predict the habitat range of Carex tibetikobresia at the current,year 2050 and 2070 under RCP2.6,RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios,respectively,and its potential habitat suitability was evaluated through ArcGIS10.5 as well based on 83 sample points of and 6environmental factors.The MaxEnt model can successfully predict the habitat range of Carex tibetikobresia and the primary factors influencing its growth being altitude and annual mean temperature.The distribution of potential suitable habitats was predominantly concentrated within the elevation range between 3 500~4 000 meters a.s.l.and at temperature of 4.5℃.The potential suitable habitat of Carex tibetikobresia at current based period is mainly distributed in the east,south and southeast of the Qinghai Tibet Plateau with a total area of 126.656×10~4km~2,accounting for 48.71% of the area of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.The range of potential suitable habitat is expected to surpass that of the current habitat across various climate scenarios in future,with spatiotemporal variations in different quality of suitable habitats.The response of vegetation on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau to climate change is characterized by sensitivity and vulnerability.The spatiotemporal distribution of Carex tibetikobresia predominantly expands towards the hinterland of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau in west and northwest.There are certain areas of degradation in potential suitable habitats of Carex tibetikobresia in future under different climate scenarios,and more significant deterioration noted in areas such as Nagqu and Shigatse.It is strongly advised that increased attention and enhanced protective measures be directed towards the high-altitude regions characterized by concentrated degradation of Carex tibetikobresia.

关 键 词：青藏高原 西藏嵩草 MaxEnt模型 潜在适宜生境 未来气候情景 

分 类 号：X171.1[环境科学与工程—环境科学]