碳社会成本的评估、应用及对气候变化管理的启示  

Assessment,Application,and Implications of the Social Cost of Carbon for Climate Change Management

作　　者：陈向东 左鹏 王天鹏 孙颜 郭偲悅 顾阿伦[2] 吴筱月 汤昕昇 Chen Xiangdong;Zuo Peng;Wang Tianpeng;Sun Yan;Guo Siyue;Gu Alun;Wu Xiaoyue;Tang Xinsheng(China Power Engineering Consulting Group Co.,LTD,Beijing 100120,China;Institute of Energy,Environment and Economy,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084,China;Business School,The University of Hong Kong,Hong Kong 999077,China)

机构地区：[1]中国电力工程顾问集团国际工程有限公司,北京100120 [2]清华大学能源环境经济研究所,北京100084 [3]香港大学经济管理学院,中国香港999077

出　　处：《科技管理研究》2025年第5期210-217,共8页Science and Technology Management Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目“面向碳中和的环境协同治理研究”(72140003);中国能建重大科技专项课题“‘30·60’碳达峰碳中和系统解决方案研究”(20222009047)。

摘　　要：传统气候变化经济学已经得出“减排行动越迟缓,未来成本和代价越大”的结论,新气候变化经济学则将重点放在如何评估气候影响上,因此引入碳社会成本并进行评估对制定气候变化政策具有重要的意义。首先界定了碳的社会成本基本概念以及其主要特点,随后对目前用于碳社会成本评估的主要综合评估模型进行了介绍,并对影响碳的社会成本的关键指标和要素进行了讨论。研究发现:碳社会成本的政策应用基本上在发达经济体的政策设计中有一定的体现,显示其还有广阔的应用空间,但是目前在概念的理解和应用以及如何不断研究和探索降低不确定性等方面还存在一定的挑战,需要进一步加强对概念的理解以及不断降低及优化评估工作中的参数设定与模型构建,更好服务于相关碳政策的决策。While traditional climate change economics has concluded that"the slower the action to reduce emissions,the greater the future costs and expenses",the new climate change economics focuses on how to assess climate impacts,and therefore the introduction and assessment of the social cost of carbon is of great significance to the formulation of climate change policies.The basic concept of the social cost of carbon and its main characteristics are first defined,followed by an introduction to the main integrated assessment models currently used to assess the social cost of carbon,and a discussion of the key indicators and elements that influence the social cost of carbon.The study finds that the policy application of the social cost of carbon is basically reflected in the policy design of developed economies,which shows that there is still a broad space for its application.However,there are still some challenges in the understanding and application of the concept as well as how to continuously research and explore the reduction of uncertainty,which requires further strengthening of the understanding of the concept as well as continuously reducing and optimizing the parameter setting and model construction in the assessment work.However,there are still some challenges in the understanding and application of the concept,as well as in how to continuously research and explore ways to reduce uncertainty.

关 键 词：碳社会成本 气候政策 综合评估模型 成本-效益分析 

分 类 号：X196[环境科学与工程—环境科学]