经营预算信息链式传递与供应链长鞭效应——基于信息溢出与风险自治的视角  

Chain Transmission of Operational Budget Information and the Bullwhip Effect in Supply Chain:A Perspective Based on Information Spillover and Risk Autonomy

作　　者：许楠[1] 毛奕欢 刘浩[3] XU Nan;MAO Yihuan;LIU Hao(School of Accountancy,Southwestern University of Finance and Economics;School of International Business,Southwestern University of Finance and Economics;Institute of Accounting and Finance,Shanghai University of Finance and Economics)

机构地区：[1]西南财经大学会计学院,四川成都610000 [2]西南财经大学国际商学院,四川成都610000 [3]上海财经大学会计与财务研究院,上海200433

出　　处：《金融研究》2024年第11期38-56,共19页Journal of Financial Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(72072106);国家自然科学基金青年项目(72402180);教育部人文社科基金(22XJC790011);中国博士后基金第74批面上项目(2023M742877);国家资助博士后研究人员计划(GZC20232171)的资助。

摘　　要：企业披露的经营预算数据传递了产品特征、生产流程和上下游互动等基于经营维度的内部信息,但这一信息如何作用于供应链的治理尚缺乏实证研究。本文手工收集2007—2020年A股上市公司年报披露的近百种经营预算指标,分析经营预算信息对供应商供需波动和供应链长鞭效应的影响及作用机制。研究发现:(1)客户经营预算信息的披露显著降低了上游(一级和多级)供应商的供需波动;同时,供应链的长鞭效应也被显著抑制,实现了供应链的风险自治。(2)从经营预算信息特征(类型、质量)和供应商特征看,不同条件下经营信息对供需波动和长鞭效应的作用存在差异。(3)经营预算信息通过降低经营计划偏差、减少冗余雇员和提高存货管理效率,实现供应链的风险治理。本文丰富了企业经营大数据在供应链治理中的原理和应用机制,为企业和政府寻求低成本供应链风险治理工具提供了解决方案。This study investigates the impact of operational budget information(OBI)disclosed by firms on supply chain governance,a topic that has received limited empirical attention.Using a manually collected dataset of nearly 100 types of OBI disclosed by A-share listed firms in their financial reports from 2007 to 2020,for the first time,we focus on the transmission of supply chain on operation budget,examine how customers'OBI influences supply and demand fluctuations in upstream direct and multi-tier suppliers and the impact and mechanism of bullwhip effect of the whole supply chain.Our findings indicate that the disclosure of customers'OBI significantly reduces fluctuations in supply and demand for both direct suppliers and multi-tier suppliers.Moreover,this disclosure mitigates the bullwhip effect within the supply chain,thereby enhancing its self-risk management capabilities.Production-and market-related OBI,as well as indicators reflecting target achievement,exhibit stronger risk governance effects.Additionally,the risk governance effect is more pronounced for suppliers with lower integration levels and higher operational risks.Mechanism analysis reveals that the risk governance is achieved through reducing suppliers'deviations in operational planning,optimizing workforce allocation,and improving inventory management efficiency.Our study makes several important theoretical contributions.First,we expand the research on the disclosure and utilization of operational information in supply chains.While existing literature primarily focuses on the transmission of private information or the impact of general financial data within the supply chain,this paper distinctly emphasizes the role of publicly disclosed,operationally specific information in supply chain governance.Second,we innovatively extract and organize specific,quantifiable operational budget indicators disclosed by firms.Existing research on operational information is predominantly qualitative,concentrating on aspects such as whether forward-looking informatio

关 键 词：经营预算 供应链 供需波动 长鞭效应 

分 类 号：F275[经济管理—企业管理]