双碳目标与数智赋能的协同高质量发展  

Synergistic High-quality Development of Carbon Peaking and Carbon Neutrality Target and Digital Intelligence Empowerment

作　　者：徐雯雯 赵彦云[1,2] Xu Wenwen;Zhao Yanyun

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学统计学院 [2]中国人民大学统计科学研究中心

出　　处：《统计研究》2025年第3期60-75,共16页Statistical Research

基　　金：中国人民大学科学研究基金重大规划项目“互联网统计学研究”(17XNLG09)。

摘　　要：本文从绿色低碳技术和数字智能技术出发,分别对双碳目标系统和数智赋能系统进行解构;基于复合系统协同度模型和面板向量自回归(PVAR)模型,研究双碳目标与数智赋能的复合协同发展作用与相互影响关系。研究结果表明,平稳发展的双碳目标系统在快速发展的数智赋能系统影响下,形成双碳目标–数智赋能协同发展的复合系统;二者的相互影响关系表现为,滞后1期数字基础设施建设能够对生态碳汇能力和绿色转型潜力产生较大的正向影响。虽然此时数字基础设施建设对排放产业链高效化,以及绿色转型潜力对数字化发展水平存在一定的负向影响,但影响效应迅速减弱并在滞后3期时转为正向。随后数字基础设施建设对绿色转型潜力的正向影响进一步加大,促使传统产业绿色转型、绿色技术迅速发展,从而推动排放产业链高效化程度不断产生正向积累,最终在滞后4期时反过来对数字化发展水平产生较大的积极影响。本研究为促进双碳目标与数智赋能复合系统协同发展提供实证分析和参考。This paper deconstructs the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality target system and the digital-intelligence empowerment system from the perspectives of green low-carbon technologies and digital-intelligent technologies.Based on the composite system synergy model and the panel vector autoregression(PVAR)model,the paper investigates the synergistic development and mutual influence between the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality target and digital-intelligence empowerment.The results indicate that the stable development of the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality target system,under the influence of the rapidly developing digital-intelligence empowerment system,forms a composite system of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality target digital-intelligence empowerment synergy.The mutual influence between the two is shown by the fact that digital infrastructure development has a significant positive impact on ecological carbon sequestration capacity and green transformation potential by lag 1.Although the construction of digital infrastructure has a certain negative impact on the efficiency of the emission industrial chain and the green transformation potential on the level of digital development,the effect rapidly weakens and turns positive by lag 3.Subsequently,the positive impact of digital infrastructure on green transformation potential further intensifies,promoting the green transformation of traditional industries and the rapid development of green technologies.This,in turn,drives continuous positive accumulation in the efficiency of the emission industrial chain,ultimately resulting in a large positive impact on the level of digital development by lag 4.The empirical analysis of the synergistic development and bidirectional interaction mechanisms between carbon peaking and carbon neutrality target and digital-intelligence empowerment has certain reference significance.

关 键 词：数智赋能系统 双碳目标系统 高质量发展 复合系统协同度 PVAR 

分 类 号：C812[社会学—统计学] X22[环境科学与工程—环境科学]