商洛地区旱涝灾害特征及其对气候变化的响应  

Characteristics of Drought and Flood Disasters and Their Responses to Climate Change in Shangluo

作　　者：许小明 白彩红 XU Xiao-ming;BAI Cai-hong(College of Urban,Rural Planning&Architectural Engineering,Shangluo University,Shangluo,Shaanxi 726000,China;Shangluo Carbon Neutrality Engineering Technology Research Center,Shangluo,Shaanxi 726000,China;Shaanxi Field Research Station of Ecohydrology at the Southern Qinling Mountains,Shangluo,Shaanxi 726000,China;Research&Innovation Team of Ecological&Environmental Protection of the Southern Qinling Mountains,Shangluo,Shaanxi 726000,china)

机构地区：[1]商洛学院城乡规划与建筑工程学院,陕西商洛726000 [2]商洛市碳中和工程技术研究中心,陕西商洛726000 [3]秦岭南麓生态水文陕西省野外科学观测研究站,陕西商洛726000 [4]秦岭南麓生态环境保护研究创新团队,陕西商洛726000

出　　处：《四川环境》2025年第2期28-35,共8页Sichuan Environment

基　　金：陕西省教育厅自然科学专项(23JK0421);商洛学院校级重点培育项目(23KYPY06);商洛学院科研基金项目(23SKY009);商洛市碳中和工程技术研究中心专项(011/SLPT2203);南水北调中线水源地生态环境技术研究创新团队(SK2017-44);大学生创新创业训练计划项目(S202311396069)。

摘　　要：区域旱涝灾害特征的研究有助于切实应对气候变化带来的挑战和减轻灾害损失。以陕西省商洛地区为研究对象,基于降水量距平百分率和累积距平等经典数理统计方法,对1959-2018年近60年的商洛地区旱涝灾害链及其对气候变化的响应关系进行了探讨与分析。结果表明:①1959-2018年内,共有28年存在旱涝灾害现象,发生概率为46.7%。②商洛地区平均每2年会出现一次旱灾或涝灾,1980年以前以旱灾为主,1980年后则以涝灾居多。③1959-2018年,商洛地区旱涝灾害季节变化特征明显,涝灾以夏季表现最为严重,旱灾主要分布在春、夏、秋3季,多季连旱特征明显。④商洛地区旱涝灾害的发生规律与区域气候变化关系明显。通过对商洛地区旱涝灾害的分析研究,为该地区有效应对气候变化和科学防灾减灾提供重要的理论支撑。Researches on characteristics of regional drought and flood disasters are essential for effectively addressing the challenges posed by climate changes and mitigating disaster-related losses.In this paper,Shangluo City,Shaanxi Province was taken as a research subject,to discuss and analyze the drought and flood disaster chain and its relationship with climate changes over the past 60 years from 1959 to 2018 by utilizing classical statistical methods such as precipitation anomaly percentage and cumulative distance equality.The findings showed that:①From 1959 to 2018,there were drought or flood disasters in 28 years,with a probability of occurrence reaching 46.7%.②On average,either a drought or a flood occurred every two years in Shangluo,predominantly droughts occurred before 1980,while floods became more prevalent thereafter.③From 1959 to 2018,seasonal variations in drought and flood disasters were pronounced in Shangluo;waterlogging was most severe during summer,whereas droughts primarily affected spring,summer,and autumn with notable instances of prolonged multi-seasonal droughts.④There was a significant correlation between the occurrence of droughts and floods in Shangluo and regional climate changes.This research and analysis provides critical theoretical support for effective responses to climate change as well as scientific strategies for disaster prevention and mitigation in Shangluo.

关 键 词：1959—2018年 商洛地区 旱涝灾害 气候响应 

分 类 号：X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治] P426[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]