“双碳” 背景下青岛市能源结构优化政策的动态影响建模研究  

A Dynamic Impact Modeling Study on the Optimization Policy of Energy Structure in Qingdao under the Background of"Dual Carbon"Goals

作　　者：闫春 周瑜 YAN Chun;ZHOU Yu(College of Mathematics and Systems Science,Shandong University of Science and Technology,Qingdao,Shandong 266590,China)

机构地区：[1]山东科技大学数学与系统科学学院,山东青岛266590

出　　处：《数学建模及其应用》2025年第1期15-24,共10页Mathematical Modeling and Its Applications

基　　金：2023年度青岛市社会科学规划研究项目(QDSKL2301117)。

摘　　要：青岛市作为山东省重要的能源生产和消费大市,面临着生态环境压力等多重挑战.因此,能源结构优化调整对青岛市居民经济健康发展和绿色生态建设具有重要意义.在“双碳”目标背景下,本文构建了基于市级视角的“经济发展-能源消费-技术创新-生态环境”四维系统动力学模型.在验证模型有效性后,综合考虑青岛市环境污染治理费用及能源优化投入成本数据,结合青岛市的实际发展特色,提出一种动态分析方法,旨在揭示青岛市能源结构现状并进行实证分析.通过情景分析法,本文预测了在不同情境下青岛市能源结构的变化,并通过比较选择最优结构状态.同时,利用动力学仿真技术,提出相应的优化策略,揭示青岛市能源结构调整优化的路径及对策建议.As an important energy production and consumption city in Shandong Province,Qingdao is confronted with multiple challenges such as ecological and environmental pressure.Therefore,the optimization and adjustment of the energy structure is of great significance to the economic health and green ecological construction of the residents in Qingdao.Against the backdrop of the"dual carbon"goals,this paper constructs a four-dimensional system dynamics model based on the municipal perspective of"economic development-energy consumption-technological innovation-ecological environment".After verifying the validity of the model,considering the data of environmental pollution control costs and energy optimization investment costs in Qingdao comprehensively,and in combination with the actual development characteristics of Qingdao,a dynamic analysis method is proposed to reveal the current situation of the energy structure in Qingdao and conduct empirical analysis.Through the scenario analysis method,this paper predicts the changes in the energy structure of Qingdao under different scenarios and selects the optimal structural state through comparison.Meanwhile,by using the dynamic simulation technology,corresponding optimization strategies are proposed to reveal the path and countermeasures for the adjustment and optimization of the energy structure in Qingdao.

关 键 词：“双碳”背景 能源消费结构 系统动力学模型 情景分析 

分 类 号：O29[理学—应用数学]