气候变化背景下风暴潮对青岛市淹没风险的空间影响分析  

SPATIAL IMPACT OF STORM SURGE ON INUNDATION RISK IN QINGDAO CITY UNDER THE BACKGROUND OF CLIMATE CHANGE

作　　者：贾渃淇 于格[1,2] 江文胜 林群[3] JIA Ruo-Qi;YU Ge;JIANG Wen-Sheng;LIN Qun(College of Environmental Science and Engineering,Ocean University of China,Qingdao 266100,China;Key Lab of Marine Environment and Ecology,Ministry of Education,Ocean University of China,Qingdao 266100,China;Development and Reform Commission Qingdao Municipality,Qingdao 266100,China)

机构地区：[1]中国海洋大学环境科学与工程学院,山东青岛266100 [2]中国海洋大学海洋环境与生态教育部重点实验室,山东青岛266100 [3]青岛市发展和改革委员会,山东青岛266100

出　　处：《海洋与湖沼》2025年第2期287-303,共17页Oceanologia Et Limnologia Sinica

基　　金：C40城市气候行动方案,20200258号;中瑞合作项目“中国适应气候变化(ACCCⅡ)”项目,INTASAVE ACCC-045号。

摘　　要：气候变化背景下,灾害风险的不确定性与复杂性也随之增加。青岛是我国北方典型的海岸带丘陵城市,相较于南方沿海城市,风暴潮发生的频率及强度相对较低。但在未来气候变化背景下,风暴潮发生的频率和破坏程度均会增加,同时产生的损失也会增大。以风暴潮淹没风险的空间影响为基本切入点,将风暴潮淹没的空间影响范围细化为风暴潮直接淹没区、海浪越坝淹没区、受潮水顶托直接影响的积水区和受潮水顶托间接影响的积水区四类。在此基础上,依托ArcGIS(Arc Geographic Information System)平台,对风暴潮空间影响范围及其变化进行有效量化,并提出重点防控岸段及重点防控期。结果表明:相较于2025年现状情景,在未来气候变化背景下,随着时间尺度增长,风暴潮对青岛市4类淹没风险影响的范围及需重点防控岸段不断扩大,影响范围和部分重点工业区分布有明显的重合趋势,同时影响范围和需重点防控的岸段及时段也随着不同台风类型而不同。因此明晰未来风暴潮可能影响的淹没范围及时段,既可以为青岛市在短时间尺度内规避风暴潮引发的淹没风险,也可以在中长时间尺度内为灾害预防管理和区域规划开发提供理论依据,同时为北方海岸带城市适应气候变化和韧性发展提供理论支撑。Under the background of climate change,the uncertainty and complexity of disaster risks have increased.Qingdao is a typical coastal hilly city in the northern China,with relatively lower frequency and intensity of storm surges compared to the southern coastal cities of China.However,in the context of future climate change,the frequency and degree of damage caused by storm surges may increase,and the resulting losses would also increase.This study takes the spatial impact of storm surge inundation risk as the basic starting point,and refines the spatial impact range of storm surge inundation into four categories:storm surge direct inundation zone,wave over dam inundation zone,water accumulation zone that directly affected by tidal top support,and water accumulation zone that indirectly affected by tidal top support.On this basis,relying on the ArcGIS platform,the spatial impact range and changes of storm surge were quantified effectively,and key prevention and control sections and periods were proposed.Results show that compared to the current situation in 2025,under the background of future climate change,as the time scale increases,the scope of the impact of storm surges on the four types of inundation risks in Qingdao and the key prevention and control sections will continue to expand.The impact scope and distribution of some key industrial areas have a clear overlap trend,and the impact scope,key prevention,control sections,and periods will also vary with different types of typhoons.Therefore,clarifying the potential inundation range and period affected by future storm surges can not only help Qingdao avoid the inundation risk caused by storm surges in the short term,but also provide a theoretical basis for disaster prevention management and regional planning and development in the medium to long term.Meanwhile,it can provide a theoretical support to the resilience development of China’s northern coastal cities against climate change.

关 键 词：风暴潮淹没 风险 空间影响 气候变化 青岛市 

分 类 号：X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治]