江苏省启东市48年乳腺癌生存率分析和未来10年趋势预测  

Analysis of Survival Rate of Breast Cancer from 1972 to 2019 and Prediction for Next 10 Years in Qidong City of Jiangsu Province

作　　者：王俊磊 王军 陈永胜 徐源佑 丁璐璐 张永辉 陈建国 朱健 倪启超[1] WANG Junlei;WANG Jun;CHEN Yongsheng;XU Yuanyou;DING Lulu;ZHANG Yonghui;CHEN Jianguo;ZHU Jian;NI Qichao(Affiliated Hospital of Nantong University,Medical School of Nantong University,Nantong 226001,China;Qidong People's Hospital/Qidong Liver Cancer Institute/the Affiliated Qidong Hospital of Nantong University,Qidong 226200,China)

机构地区：[1]南通大学附属医院,南通大学医学院,江苏南通22600 [2]启东市人民医院/启东肝癌防治研究所/南通大学附属启东医院,江苏启东226200

出　　处：《中国肿瘤》2025年第4期304-310,共7页China Cancer

基　　金：南通市科技计划项目(JCZ2022050);南通市卫生健康委员会科研课题(MS2023121)。

摘　　要：[目的]分析启东市1972—2019年全人群乳腺癌的生存率并对未来10年进行趋势预测。[方法]提取启东市肿瘤登记报告系统中1972—2019年乳腺癌资料。计算观察生存率(observed survival rate,OSR)、相对生存率(relative survival rate,RSR)和年龄标化相对生存率(age-adjusted relative survival,ARS),以及平均年度变化百分比(average annual percentage change,AAPC)。ARIMA模型进行乳腺癌生存率趋势预测。[结果]5-RSR从1972—1977年的57.30%升至2014—2019年的89.01%,8个时期的RSR上升趋势有统计学意义(P<0.001)。5-ARS从1972—1977年的48.12%升至2014—2019年的85.64%,5-ARS的AAPC为1.85%(t=10.113,P<0.001),上升趋势有统计学意义。其中1972—2019年男性乳腺癌5-RSR为85.22%,女性5-RSR为74.51%。女性5-RSR从1972—1977年的56.44%升至2014—2019年的88.93%,5-ARS从1972—1977年的46.14%升至2014—2019年的85.23%。女性乳腺癌5-RSR、5-ARS的AAPC分别为1.29%(t=13.087,P<0.001)和1.90%(t=10.369,P<0.001),上升趋势均有统计学意义。25~34、35~44、45~54、55~64、65~74、75岁及以上各年龄组5-RSR分别为66.91%、74.69%、76.97%、75.52%、73.44%及66.40%,AAPC分别为1.02%(t=3.816,P=0.009)、1.03%(t=4.936,P=0.003)、1.23%(t=5.826,P=0.001)、1.86%(t=5.997,P=0.001)、2.13%(t=10.245,P<0.001)和1.44%(t=6.405,P=0.001),上升趋势均有统计学意义。经ARIMA模型进行生存率趋势预测,2028年乳腺癌的5-RSR、5-ARS分别升至98.76%和98.33%。[结论]启东市全人群乳腺癌登记病例总体生存率有了较大的提高,未来将进一步提升,应当继续重视乳腺癌的防治研究。[Purpose]To analyze the survival rate of breast cancer in Qidong City of Jiangsu Province from 1972 to 2019 and to predict the trend in the next 10 years.[Methods]The data of breast cancer collected from Qidong Cancer Registry from 1972 to 2019 were extracted.Observed survival rate(OSR),relative survival rate(RSR),age-adjusted relative survival(ARS)and average annual percentage change(AAPC)of breast cancer were calculated.ARIMA model was used to predict the trend of breast cancer survival rate.[Results]The 5-year RSR increased from 57.30%during 1972—1977 to 89.01%during 2014—2019,and the uptrend of RSR in the 8 periods was statistically significant(P<0.001).The 5-year ARS increased from 48.12%during 1972—1977 to85.64%during 2014—2019 with an AAPC of 1.85%(t=10.113,P<0.001).The 5-year RSR during1972—2019 for males was 85.22%,and for females was 74.51%.For females,the 5-year RSR increased from 56.44%during 1972—1977 to 88.93%during 2014—2019 with an AAPC of 1.29%(t=13.087,P<0.001),and the 5-year ARS increased from 46.14%during 1972—1977 to 85.23%during 2014—2019 with an AAPC of 1.90%(t=10.369,P<0.001).The 5-year RSR in the age groups of 25~34,35~44,45~54,55~64,65~74,and over 75 years old were 66.91%,74.69%,76.97%,75.52%,73.44%and 66.40%,respectively;the corresponding AAPCs of 5-RSR in above age groups were 1.02%(t=3.816,P=0.009),1.03%(t=4.936,P=0.003),1.23%(t=5.826,P=0.001),1.86%(t=5.997,P=0.001),2.13%(t=10.245,P<0.001),and 1.44%(t=6.405,P=0.001),respectively.ARIMA modeling of survival trend prediction showed that 5-RSR and 5-ARS for breast cancer will be ascended to 98.76%and 98.33%by 2028,respectively.[Conclusion]The overall survival rate of registered breast cancer cases in Qidong City has been greatly improved and will be further improved in the future,more attention should be paid to the prevention and treatment of breast cancer.

关 键 词：乳腺癌 癌症登记 生存率 趋势 江苏 

分 类 号：R73-31[医药卫生—肿瘤] R737.9[医药卫生—临床医学]