面向新质生产力水平测度的预测信息优化灰建模方法  

Novel Forecasting Information Optimization Grey Modeling Method for the Measuring of New Quality Productivity

作　　者：肖琴梓 高明运 陈林 毛树华[3] XIAO Qin-zi;GAO Ming-yun;CHEN Lin;MAO Shu-hua(School of Management,Wuhan Institute of Technology,Wuhan 430205,China;School of Information Management,Central China Normal University,Wuhan 430079,China;School of Mathematics and Statistics,Wuhan University of Technology,Wuhan 430070,China)

机构地区：[1]武汉工程大学管理学院,湖北武汉430205 [2]华中师范大学信息管理学院,湖北武汉430079 [3]武汉理工大学数学与统计学院,湖北武汉430070

出　　处：《数学的实践与认识》2025年第3期167-178,共12页Mathematics in Practice and Theory

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(72401104,72301202);教育部人文社会科学基金(24YJCZH060);湖北省自然科学基金(2023AFB491)。

摘　　要：数据是发展新质生产力的核心要素,挖掘数据要素中原始数据和预测数据的科学价值是新质生产力水平测度和预测中的关键问题.首先基于原始数据推导了新质生产力灰预测模型的矩阵形式,然后定量刻画了预测数据对灰预测模型参数的反馈调节作用,提出了新质生产力的预测数据优化灰建模方法(FOGM),最后利用2012-2022年面板数据预测了中国区域新质生产力发展水平.研究表明:FOGM在预测中国新质生产力趋势时具有较高精确性和较好稳定性。新方法不仅能够精准地覆盖全国范围的新质生产力预测需求,还展现出对四大区域内新质生产力变化的良好适应性与预测能力.研究成果可以为区域经济发展战略的制定与实施提供科学依据.Data is the core factor of developing new quality productivity.Mining the scientific value of original data and forecast data in data factors is a key issue in measuring and predicting new quality productivity.This work presents a novel forecasting information optimization grey modeling method(FOGM)for the new quality productivity prediction data.Firstly,this paper deduces the matrix form of the new quality productivity grey prediction model based on the original data.It then quantitatively describes the feedback adjustment effect of the forecast data on the grey prediction model parameters.Finally,the development level of China's regional new quality productivity is predicted using the provincial panel data from 2012 to 2022.The results show that FOGM has high accuracy and good stability in predicting the trend of new quality productivity in China.The novel method can not only accurately cover the demand of new quality productivity forecasting in the whole country,but also show good adaptability and forecasting ability to the change of new quality productivity in the four regions.The research results can provide the scientific basis for the formulation and implementation of regional economic development strategy.

关 键 词：新质生产力 数据要素 GM(1 1)模型 水平测度 预测信息优化 

分 类 号：F124.3[经济管理—世界经济]