黄河流域农业碳排放时空演变特征及影响因素研究  

Spatiotemporal Evolution Characteristics and Influencing Factors of Agricultural Carbon Emissions in the Yellow River Basin

作　　者：张军涛[1] 韩祁祺 ZHANG Juntao;HAN Qiqi(School of Public Administration,Dongbei University of Finance and Economics,Dalian 116025,China;Institute for Northeast Full Revitalization,Dongbei University of Finance and Economics,Dalian 116025,China)

机构地区：[1]东北财经大学公共管理学院,辽宁大连116025 [2]东北财经大学东北全面振兴研究院,辽宁大连116025

出　　处：《环境科学研究》2025年第4期754-766,共13页Research of Environmental Sciences

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(No.41571121);辽宁省社会学科规划基金重大项目(No.L23ZD025);辽宁省教育厅高校基本科研重点项目(No.LJ112410173006)。

摘　　要：在“双碳”战略背景下,准确掌握黄河流域农业碳排放发展态势及驱动机制对于探寻农业碳减排路径以及实现农业低碳发展具有重要意义。在测算2011−2021年黄河流域56个地级及以上城市农业碳排放的基础上,运用核密度估计、Dagum基尼系数、空间杜宾模型等方法深入探讨其时空演变、空间差异、影响因素及空间效应。结果表明:①2011−2021年黄河流域农业碳排放量从121.15×10^(6) t降至108.23×10^(6) t,经历了“缓慢上升−持续下降−略有回升”三个阶段,上、中、下游各区域农业碳排放量的演进过程和极化特征存在差异。②黄河流域农业碳排放具有明显的空间集聚与区域分异特征,上游地区呈现“北高南低”的空间分布特征,中游地区呈现“西高东低”的空间分布特征,下游地区呈现“中心−外围”的空间分布特征。③黄河流域农业碳排放总体差异以及中游、下游地区的区域内差异呈波动下降趋势,区域间差异是总体差异的主要来源,年均贡献率达43.87%,且中游与下游间差异最大,上游与中游间差异最小。④政府干预程度、农业机械化强度会抑制黄河流域农业碳排放,政府干预程度还存在负向溢出效应;人均耕地面积、以种植业和畜牧业为主的农业产业结构对农业碳排放产生正向影响;农业产业集聚、农业经济发展水平对本地和周边地区农业碳排放的影响均表现为倒“U”型关系。综上,黄河流域各地区农业碳排放时空演变特征和影响因素差异显著,应制定实施差异化的区域碳减排策略,加强地区间减排技术交流合作和经验共享,推动农业低碳可持续发展。Under the background of the‘Dual Carbon’goal,understanding the development trend and driving mechanism of agricultural carbon emissions in the Yellow River Basin is of great significance for exploring agricultural carbon emission reduction paths and achieving low-carbon agricultural development.Based on the calculation of agricultural carbon emissions of 56 prefecture level and above cities in the Yellow River Basin from 2011 to 2021,this study uses Kernel Density Estimation,Dagum Gini coefficient,and Spatial Durbin Model to examine the spatiotemporal evolution,spatial differences,influencing factors,and spatial effects.The results indicate that:(1)From 2011 to 2021,agricultural carbon emissions in the Yellow River Basin decreased from 121.15×10^(6) t to 108.23×10^(6) t,going through three phases:‘slow increase-continuous decrease-slight rebound’.The evolution process and polarization characteristics of agricultural carbon emissions vary across the upstream,midstream,and downstream areas.(2)Agricultural carbon emissions in the Yellow River Basin show significant spatial agglomeration and regional differentiation.The upstream areas exhibit a‘high in the north,low in the south’spatial pattern,the midstream areas show a‘high in the west,low in the east’distribution,and the downstream areas feature a‘center-periphery’spatial structure.(3)Overall differences in agriculture carbon emissions in the Yellow River Basin,as well as intraregional differences in the midstream and downstream areas show a fluctuating downward trend.Inter-regional differences are the primary source of overall differences,with an average annual contribution rate of 43.87%.The difference between the midstream and downstream areas is the largest,while the difference between the upstream and midstream areas is the smallest.(4)Government intervention and the intensity of agricultural mechanization suppress agricultural carbon emissions,and government intervention shows a significant negative spatial spillover effect.The per capi

关 键 词：黄河流域 农业碳排放 时空演变 空间溢出效应 

分 类 号：X24[环境科学与工程—环境科学] F323.2[经济管理—产业经济]