Understanding the spatio-temporal dynamics of ecosystem services under multiple future scenarios to assess the progress of Sustainable Development Goals implementation  

了解未来多情景生态系统服务动态分析,以衡量可持续发展目标实施进展

作　　者：ZHANG Ze JIANG Weiguo LING Ziyan PENG Kaifeng WU Zhifeng LI Zhuo 张泽;蒋卫国;凌子燕;彭凯锋;吴志峰;荔琢

机构地区：[1]State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing and Digital Earth Science,Faculty of Geographical Sciences,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China [2]School of Information and Control Engineering,Qingdao University of Technology,Qingdao 266520,Shandong,China [3]College of Geographic and Environmental Sciences,Tianjin Normal University,Tianjin 300387,China [4]School of Geography and Remote Sensing,Guangzhou University,Guangzhou 510006,China [5]National Marine Data and Information Service,Tianjin 300171,China

出　　处：《Journal of Geographical Sciences》2025年第4期745-762,共18页地理学报(英文版)

基　　金：National Natural Science Foundation of China,No.U21A2022,No.U1901219,No.42071393,No.42101369。

摘　　要：Ecosystem services in urban agglomerations are the environmental conditions under which human survival and development are sustained.Quantitative assessment of ecosystem services and complex interactions can contribute positively to the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals(SDGs)for urban agglomerations.However,studies on the future contribution of multi-scenario ecosystem services to the SDGS are lacking.We pronovel integrated modeling framework that integrates the CLUES,InVEST,SOM,and GWR approaches to address the complex relationship between ecosystem services over a long“past-present-future”time series.We construct a novel ecosystem service bundle-based approach for measuring urban agglomerations progress towards achieving ecologically relevant sustainable development goals at multiple scales.In the future scenario,the water yield(WY),habitat quality(HQ),and soil conservation(SC)show similar spatial patterns,with comparable spatial grids,while carbon stock(CS)remains predominantly unchanged and the ecological protection scenario(EPS)improves more significantly.The high-synergy regions are mainly distributed in bundle 4,and most of the trade-off regions appear in bundles 1 and 2.Over the last 30 years,all but the water-related SDGs are declining in bundle 1 of the two urban agglomerations,which are 15%higher in the Guangxi Beibu Gulf(GBG)than in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area(GBA).From 2020 to 2035,the three scenarios demonstrate that the optimization of the SDGs progresses most effectively under the future ecological protection scenario(EPS).In particular,bundles 3 and 4 are significantly improved.This critical new knowledge can be used in sustainable ecosystem management and decision-making in urban agglomerations.

关 键 词：Sustainable Development Goals(SDGs) ecosystem service bundle trade-offs and synergies InVEST model self-organizing mapping(SOM)algorithm urban agglomeration in south China 

分 类 号：X171.1[环境科学与工程—环境科学]