气候变化对木姜子属五种植物分布的影响  

Study on the influence of climate change on the distribution and future change of five Litsea species

作　　者：乔爽 汪阳东[1] 陈益存[1] 赵耘霄 曾为 金世茂 高暝[1] QIAO Shuang;WANG Yangdong;CHEN Yicun;ZHAO Yunxiao;ZENG Wei;JIN Shimao;GAO Ming(Research Institute of Subtropical Forestry,Chinese Academy of Forestry,Hangzhou 311400,China;College of Forestry and Biotechnology,Zhejiang Agriculture and Forestry University,Hangzhou 311300,China;Chongqing Wanzhou Forestry Institute,Chongqing 404100,China)

机构地区：[1]中国林业科学研究院亚热带林业研究所,杭州311400 [2]浙江农林大学林业与生物技术学院,杭州311300 [3]重庆市万州区林业科学研究所,重庆404100

出　　处：《生态学报》2025年第7期3401-3420,共20页Acta Ecologica Sinica

基　　金：浙江省“十四五”育种专项林木协作组课题(2021C02070-3)。

摘　　要：木姜子属是樟科的代表类群,是重要的药用及香料植物资源。预估气候变化对木姜子属植物的影响,对该属植物资源保护、引种栽培及可持续利用具有重要意义。为探究木姜子属五种植物适生区与气候变化的关系,基于2371条分布记录和22个生物变量,优化预测模型的调控倍频和特征组合参数,应用MaxEnt软件预测当前和未来(2050s, 2070s, 2090s)不同气候情景(SSP126,SSP245,SSP370,SSP585)下木姜子属五种植物的潜在地理分布,分析其适生区的空间变化及质心迁移趋势。结果表明:(1)模型预测结果具有较高准确度,优化后各组模型的AUC值均高于0.93。(2)木姜子属五种植物潜在分布受不同环境因素影响,其中最热季度平均降水对五种植物分布均有显著影响。(3)当前气候条件下,木姜子属五种植物的适宜性在区域间存在明显差异,红叶木姜子在我国总适生区的面积最大。(4)未来不同气候变化情景下,木姜子属五种植物的适宜生境将发生不同程度的扩张和收缩变化,其中山鸡椒和毛叶木姜子总适生区呈现完全扩张趋势,毛山鸡椒、天目木姜子和红叶木姜子不同情景下呈现不同程度的收缩和扩张。(5)随着未来全球变暖,各物种质心发生了不同程度的迁移,其中红叶木姜子、山鸡椒的质心将呈现出向高维度地区迁移趋势。木姜子属五种植物生态适应性及对气候变化的响应为其制定保护策略以及引种栽培提供理论依据。Litsea is a representative group of Lauraceae and is an important medicinal resource plant.Predicting the impacts of climate change on Litsea is helpful for which would promote the resource protection,introduction and sustainable utilization.In order to investigate the relationship between the habitats of five Litsea species and climate change,the regularization multiplier(RM)and feature combination(FC)of Maxent predictive model are optimized based on 2371 distribution records and 22 biological variables.Maxent soft was used to predict the potential geographical distribution of the five Litsea species and analysed variations in the area of suitable habitats and the movement trends of the center of distribution under current climate and 4 climate scenarios(SSP126,SSP245,SSP370,SSP585)for three future time periods(2050s,2070s,2090s).The results showed that:(1)the prediction accuracy of the Maxent model was high,and area under the curve(AUC)of each group of the Maxent models was higher than 0.93.(2)The potential distribution of the five Litsea species was affected by different environmental factors,and precipitation of the warmest quarter had a significant effect on the distribution of five Litsea species.(3)Under the current climatic conditions,there were obvious differences in the suitability of the five Litsea species in the same region,and the area,and the total suitable area for Litsea rubescens is the largest in China.(4)In the future,the suitable habitats of the five Litsea species would expand and reduce to different degrees under different climate change scenarios,among which the total suitable habitat of Litsea cubeba and Litsea mollis would show a complete expansion trend,and the total suitable habitat of Litsea cubeba var formosana,Litsea auriculata and Litsea rubescens would show different degrees of reduction and expansion under different scenarios.(5)With the future global warming,the distribution center of five Litsea species have migrated to varying degrees,and the distribution center of Litsea rube

关 键 词：木姜子 气候变化 最大熵(MaxEnt)模型 适生区 

分 类 号：Q948[生物学—植物学]