人工智能影响下制造业转移与就业总量的关系研究  

Research on the Relationship Between Manufacturing Relocation and Total Employment under the Impact of Artificial Intelligence

作　　者：罗丹 Luo Dan(College of Economics and Management,China Jiliang University,Hangzhou,Zhejiang 310018)

机构地区：[1]中国计量大学经济与管理学院,浙江杭州310000

出　　处：《中国商论》2025年第7期135-138,共4页China Journal of Commerce

摘　　要：在人工智能浪潮的推动下,制造业生产方式发生了颠覆性变化,对劳动力市场产生深远影响。本文基于2006—2019年的省级面板数据,从国际和国内两个视角出发,深入探讨了制造业转移对就业总量的影响。研究发现,制造业国际国内转移均对就业总量产生积极影响;异质性分析表明,制造业FDI和国内制造业转移为东中西部地区提供了就业机会,而OFDI对中部地区就业的正向影响则不显著;同时,OFDI和国内转移对创新质量较低的地区的就业推动作用更强,FDI则在创新质量较高的地区产生的就业激励作用更大。机制检验结果显示,在人工智能的影响下,制造业国际国内转移存在“就业创造效应”,有利于增加就业总量。本文研究结论有助于缓解公众对“机器换人”可能带来的就业的担忧,为未来制造业的发展方向、方式及就业保障政策提供了有益启示。Under the wave of artificial intelligence,the manufacturing production mode has undergone a disruptive change,which has profound implications for the labor market.Based on provincial panel data from 2006 to 2019,this study explores the impact of the international and domestic transfer of manufacturing industries on total employment from both international and domestic perspectives.The study finds that both international and domestic transfers of manufacturing industries have a positive impact on total employment.Heterogeneity analysis reveals that foreign direct investment(FDI)and domestic manufacturing transfers provide employment opportunities for the eastern,central,and western regions,while outward foreign direct investment(OFDI)has no significant positive effect on employment in the central region.Additionally,OFDI and domestic transfers have a stronger employment-promoting effect in regions with lower innovation quality,while FDI has a larger employment incentive effect in regions with higher innovation quality.Mechanism testing results show that under the influence of artificial intelligence,both international and domestic transfers of manufacturing industries have an"employment creation effect,"which is beneficial for increasing overall employment.The conclusions of this study help alleviate public concerns about the potential job losses caused by"machine replacement"and provide valuable insights for future development directions,methods,and employment security policies in the manufacturing industry.

关 键 词：产业转移 国内转移 国际转移 就业 工业机器人 FDI OFDI 

分 类 号：F240[经济管理—劳动经济]