基于系统动力学模型的海洋碳汇银行生态与经济效应研究——以浙江省为例  

Study on ecological and economic effects of marine carbon sink bank based on system dynamics model--Taking Zhejiang province as an example

作　　者：贺义雄 王燕炜 张风轩 董华洋 HE Yixiong;WANG Yanwei;ZHANG Fengxuan;DONG Huayang(School of Economics and Management,Zhejiang Ocean University,Zhoushan 316022,China;Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai),Zhuhai 519000,China;National Marine Environmental Monitoring Center,Dalian 116023,China)

机构地区：[1]浙江海洋大学经济与管理学院,浙江舟山316022 [2]南方海洋科学与工程广东省实验室,广东珠海519000 [3]国家海洋环境监测中心,辽宁大连116023

出　　处：《海洋环境科学》2025年第2期284-293,共10页Marine Environmental Science

基　　金：国家社科基金项目(23BJY197);浙江省软科学研究计划项目(2023C35059);浙江省省属高校基本科研业务费项目(2021RD001);浙江省大学生科技创新活动计划暨新苗人才计划项目(2023R411053);国家海洋环境监测中心博士科研启动经费(2020-A-01)。

摘　　要：有效开发海洋碳汇能够为碳中和目标的实现提供有力支撑。为激发利益相关者参与海洋碳汇开发的积极性,促进海洋碳汇生态与经济双重价值的充分实现,本文选取浙江省五个沿海城市,构建海洋碳汇银行——海洋资源环境——区域经济——社会发展系统动力学模型,模拟分析海洋碳汇银行的建立对五市海洋资源环境及经济社会发展的影响,结果表明:(1)海洋碳汇银行的建立对滨海湿地面积恢复有明显的促进作用,与未建立海洋碳汇银行情景相比,建立海洋碳汇银行情景下滨海湿地面积以较快的速度增加;(2)海洋碳汇银行建立后,海洋资源环境状况更加优良,与未建立海洋碳汇银行情景的差异较大;(3)海洋碳汇银行对经济增长的贡献较强,特别是从模拟期第20年开始,海洋碳汇银行收益开始急速增长。因此,海洋碳汇银行有明显的经济和生态效应。为更好地发展海洋碳汇银行,提出如下建议:(1)建立事务管理体系;(2)实施适应性治理;(3)提升海洋碳汇资源开发的技术支撑水平。The effective development of marine carbon sink can provide strong support for the realization of the carbon neutral goal.To increase the enthusiasm of stakeholders to participate in the development of marine carbon sink and promote the full realization of the dual ecological and economic value of marine carbon sink,this paper selects the five coastal cities in Zhejiang province,constructs system dynamics model of marine carbon sink bank-marine resources and environment-regional economy-social development,simulates and analyzes the impact of establishment of marine carbon sink bank on the marine resources,environment and economic and social development of the five cities.The results show that:(1)the establishment of marine carbon sink bank has a significant promotion effect on the restoration of coastal wetland area,compared to the no-established carbon sink bank scenario,under the scenario of establishing a marine carbon sink bank,the area of coastal wetland increases at a relatively fast speed;(2)after the establishment of marine carbon sink bank,the marine resources and the environment are even better,different from the no marine carbon sink bank scenario;(3)marine carbon sink banks have a strong contribution to economic growth,in particular,starting from the year 20 of the simulation period,marine carbon sink bank earnings began to grow rapidly.Therefore,marine carbon sink banks have significant economic and ecological effects.In order to better develop marine carbon sink banks,the following suggestions are proposed:(1)establish a transaction management system;(2)implement adaptive governance;(3)enhance the technical support level for the development of marine carbon sink resources.

关 键 词：海洋碳汇银行 系统动力学 价值实现 浙江省 

分 类 号：P74[天文地球—海洋科学] X22[环境科学与工程—环境科学]