2014—2023年兰州市大气臭氧对居民死亡的急性效应  

Acute effects of atmospheric ozone on residential mortality in Lanzhou City,2014-2023

作　　者：陈瑞[1] 杨永宏 魏巧珍 樊玉芳[1] CHEN Rui;YANG Yonghong;WEI Qiaozhen;FAN Yufang(Department of Environmental Sanitation,Gansu Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Lanzhou 730000,China)

机构地区：[1]甘肃省疾病预防控制中心环境卫生科,兰州730000

出　　处：《中华疾病控制杂志》2025年第3期317-323,331,共8页Chinese Journal of Disease Control & Prevention

基　　金：甘肃省自然科学基金(24JRRA1153);甘肃省哲学社会科学规划项目(2023YB061)。

摘　　要：目的探讨2014—2023年兰州市大气臭氧(ozone,O_(3))对居民死亡的急性影响。方法收集2014—2023年兰州市的环境空气质量、气象和居民死因监测数据,采用时间序列分析方法定量研究O_(3)暴露与居民死亡之间的关系,并进行疾病、性别和年龄的分层分析。结果2014—2023年兰州市O_(3)的日最大8 h平均浓度为91.0μg/m^(3)。对于不同种类死亡,单污染物模型分析结果显示,lag 4 d时,O_(3)浓度每升高10μg/m^(3),居民非意外死亡风险增加0.408%(95%CI:0.073%~0.744%);lag 2 d和lag 4 d时,O_(3)浓度每升高10μg/m^(3),循环系统疾病死亡风险分别增加0.478%(95%CI:0.025%~0.933%)和0.578%(95%CI:0.139%~1.020%)。单污染物累积效应中,O_(3)在lag 0~4 d至lag 0~7 d时对非意外死亡的影响差异均有统计学意义(均P<0.05),效应值在lag 0~5 d最大,O_(3)浓度每升高10μg/m^(3),居民非意外死亡风险增加0.831%(95%CI:0.174%~1.490%);O_(3)在lag 0~2 d至lag 0~7 d时对循环系统疾病死亡的影响差异均有统计学意义(均P<0.05),效应值在lag 0~5 d最大,O_(3)浓度每升高10μg/m^(3),居民非意外死亡风险增加1.420%(95%CI:0.555%~2.290%)。对于不同性别和年龄死亡效应分析,单污染物模型中,O_(3)在lag 2~lag 4 d时对女性和≥65岁人群死亡的影响差异均有统计学意义(均P<0.05),对于女性,效应值在lag 4 d最大,O_(3)浓度每升高10μg/m^(3),女性死亡风险增加0.636%(95%CI:0.154%~1.120%);对于≥65岁人群,效应值在lag 3 d最大,O_(3)浓度每升高10μg/m^(3),≥65岁人群死亡风险增加0.613%(95%CI:0.198%~1.030%)。单污染物累积效应中,O_(3)在lag 0~3 d至lag 0~4 d时对男性死亡的影响差异均有统计学意义(均P<0.05),效应值在lag 0~4 d最大,O_(3)浓度每升高10μg/m^(3),男性死亡风险增加0.775%(95%CI:0.028%~1.530%);O_(3)在lag 0~2 d至lag 0~7 d时对女性和≥65岁人群死亡的影响差异均有统计学意义(均P<0.05),效应值均在lag 0~4 d最大,O_(3)浓度每升高10μg/m^(3),女Objective To investigate the acute impact of atmospheric ozone(O_(3))on resident mortality in Lanzhou City.Methods Ambient air quality,meteorological and residential cause of death monitoring data were collected from 2014 to 2023 in Lanzhou City,and time series analysis method was used to quantitatively study the relationship between O_(3)exposure and residential deaths,with disease,gender and age stratification.Results The daily maximum 8-h average concentration of O_(3)in Lanzhou City from 2014 to 2023 was 91.0μg/m^(3).For different types of mortality,in the single-pollutant model,at lag 4 d,for every 10μg/m^(3)increase in O_(3)concentration,the risk of non-accidental death for the population increased by 0.408%(95%CI:0.073%-0.744%).The risk of death from circulatory disease increased by 0.478%(95%CI:0.025%-0.933%)and 0.578%(95%CI:0.139%-1.020%)for every 10μg/m^(3)increase in O_(3)concentration at lag 2 d and lag 4 d,respectively.Among the cumulative effects of single pollutants,the differences in the effects of O_(3)on non-accidental deaths from lag 0-4 d to lag 0-7 d were all statistically significant(all P<0.05).The effect value was largest at lag 0-5 d,with a 0.831%(95%CI:0.174%-1.490%)increase in the risk of non-accidental death for the population for every 10μg/m^(3)increase in O_(3)concentration.The differences in the effects of O_(3)on death from circulatory diseases from lag 0-2 d to lag 0-7 d were all statistically significant(all P<0.05),with the effect value being greatest at lag 0-5 d.For every 10μg/m^(3)increase in O_(3)concentration,the risk of non-accidental death in the population increased by 1.420%(95%CI:0.555%-2.290%).For the analyses of mortality effects by gender and age,the differences in the effects of O_(3)from lag 2 d to lag 4 d on deaths in females and those≥65 years old in the single-pollutant model were statistically significant(all P<0.05),and for females,the effect value was largest at lag 4 d.For every 10μg/m^(3)increase in O_(3)concentration,the risk of death in females

关 键 词：臭氧 死亡 时间序列分析 

分 类 号：R122.7[医药卫生—环境卫生学]