基于kNDVI的广东省植被动态变化分析  

Analysis of Vegetation Dynamic in Guangdong Province Based on kNDVI

作　　者：陈鹏 马育军 张梦雅 陈婉婷 江晓鹏 CHEN Peng;MA Yujun;ZHANG Mengya;CHEN Wanting;JIANG Xiaopeng(School of Geography and Planning,Sun Yat-sen University,Guangzhou 510006,P.R.China;Meinan State-owned Forest Farm in Meizhou City,Meizhou 514777,P.R.China)

机构地区：[1]中山大学地理科学与规划学院,广东广州510006 [2]梅州市国有梅南林场,广东梅州514777

出　　处：《生态环境学报》2025年第4期499-510,共12页Ecology and Environmental Sciences

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41930646)。

摘　　要：广东省经济发展迅速,植被资源丰富,研究其植被动态变化对于实现社会经济发展与生态环境保护之间的平衡具有重要意义。基于2000-2022年的核标准化植被指数(k NDVI),探讨了广东省植被的时空变化特征,通过SHAP方法探究了影响k NDVI变化的主导因子,并利用LSTM模型与Hurst指数预测了未来植被变化趋势。结果表明,1)广东省kNDVI整体呈现“中间低、四周高”的格局,粤北地区年平均kNDVI最高,反映了区域较高的植被覆盖率;珠三角地区年平均k NDVI最低,这可能是由于快速的城市化进程导致了自然植被减少。2)研究时段内,广东省仅0.04%的区域植被状况保持稳定;约84.6%的区域植被状况改善,这可能得益于一系列生态保护政策与城市化积极效应的共同作用;15.4%的区域出现植被退化,主要集中在珠三角及粤东地区,这与当地频繁的土地利用变化和城市扩张紧密相关。相较于自然因素(如气温和降水),人为因素(如GDP增长和人口增加)对广东省植被变化的影响更显著。3)未来,广东省植被呈现反持续性像元占比为66.6%,持续性像元占比为33.4%,表明大部分地区植被覆盖的变化趋势可能发生逆转。In recent years,intensified climate change and human activity have posed severe threats to terrestrial ecosystems stability.Guangdong,one of the most important provinces in China's economy,is rich in natural resources and has an extensive vegetation cover.However,rapid urbanization and industrialization have led to complex vegetation changes in the Guangdong Province.In the soil-plant-atmosphere continuum,vegetation plays a crucial role in balancing socioeconomic development and environmental protection.To better monitor and understand the characteristics of vegetation change in Guangdong,this study introduced a new vegetation index:the Kernel Normalized Difference Vegetation Index(kNDVI).Compared with traditional NDVI,kNDVI addresses the challenges in monitoring vegetation dynamics owing to vegetation saturation,bias,and complex phenological dynamics.It also excels in noise resistance and data stability,making it ideal for evaluating vegetation change across diverse biomes and climate zones.To verify the applicability of kNDVI in Guangdong,we first compared the changes in monthly NDVI and kNDVI between 2000 and 2022,particlarly from June to September 2021,during which the vegetation cover reached its peak.Based on this comparison,we used the NDVI saturation threshold of 0.80 as a reference,and found that the saturation effect of NDVI may prevent accurate representation of vegetation change in approximately 30% of Guangdong.In contrast,kNDVI reflects the spatiotemporal distribution of vegetation in Guangdong better than NDVI,particularly in areas with high vegetation cover.Using kNDVI as the main vegetation indicator,this study investigated the spatiotemporal characteristics of vegetation dynamics in Guangdong from 2000 to 2022 through Theil-Sen Median trend analysis and Mann-Kendall tests.The Shapley Additive Explanation(SHAP) method was adopted to explore the primary driving factors of kNDVI change.Finally,we analyzed future trends in vegetation change based on the Theil-Sen Median trend analysis of the Hurst i

关 键 词：k NDVI 植被时空变化 人类活动 未来趋势 广东省 

分 类 号：Q948[生物学—植物学] X173[环境科学与工程—环境科学]