多尺度下浙江省碳汇时空演变及影响因素分析  

Spatio-temporal evolution and influencing factors of carbon sink in Zhejiang Province under multi-scale

作　　者：毛泽辉 卢栩涵 李玛瓅 缪卓然 MAO Zehui;LU Xuhan;LI Mali;MIAO Zhuoran(School of Civil&Environmental Engineering and Geography Science,Ningbo University,Ningbo 315211,China)

机构地区：[1]宁波大学土木工程与地理环境学院,浙江宁波315211

出　　处：《资源开发与市场》2025年第4期501-511,共11页Resource Development & Market

摘　　要：土地利用碳汇核算及其时空演变是土地覆被研究的热点,也是实现碳达峰和碳中和的核心。浙江省作为首批生态文明示范区,如何优化土地利用格局、有效增强碳汇能力是亟须解决的问题。基于碳汇系数法、标准差椭圆模型和重心迁移模型,估算1980—2020年浙江省碳汇总量和碳汇强度,分析其演变规律,利用地理探测器模型对影响碳汇强度的因素进行探测。结果表明:①浙江省碳汇用地呈减少趋势,耕地、草地、未利用地等碳汇用地面积减少,林地、陆地水域等碳汇用地面积增加;②浙江省碳汇总量和碳汇强度总体上均呈现波动下降趋势,丽水市碳汇总量和碳汇强度稳居第一,其次为杭州市,舟山市和嘉兴市碳汇总量和碳汇强度均较小;③土地开发利用程度是影响碳汇的主导因素,降水、坡度、GDP密度、人口密度也对碳汇强度具有较强影响,社会经济因素作用力不断增强。Land use carbon sink accounting and spatiotemporal evolution analysis are the hot spots of land cover change research,and also one of the core keys to achieve carbon peak and carbon neutrality.As one of the first ecological civilization demonstration areas in Zhejiang Province,how to optimize land use pattern and effectively enhance carbon sink capacity is an urgent problem to be solved.Therefore,this paper analyzed the spatio-temporal evolution of carbon sink land in Zhejiang Province,estimated the total carbon sink and carbon sink intensity in Zhejiang Province from 1980 to 2020 based on the carbon sink coefficient method,standard deviation ellipse model and gravity transfer model,and analyzed the evolution law,and used the geographical detector model to detect the influencing factors of the evolution of carbon sink intensity in Zhejiang Province.The results showed that:①The carbon sink land in Zhejiang Province showed a decreasing trend,the land area of cultivated land,grassland,ocean and unused land decreased,and the land area of forest land and water area increased.The occupied area of carbon sink land was 6842.58km2,the new carbon sink land was only 555.93 km2,and the net loss was 6286.65 km2.The occupied area was concentrated in the northern plain region of Zhejiang Province and all prefectural cities.②In Zhejiang Province,the total carbon sink and carbon sink intensity showed a downward trend in general.Lishui City ranked first,followed by Hangzhou City,Zhoushan City and Jiaxing City.③The degree of land development and utilization was the dominant factor in the evolution of carbon sink intensity.Precipitation,slope,GDP density and population density also had a strong influence on carbon sink intensity,and the influence of social and economic factors was increasing.

关 键 词：碳汇用地 碳汇 多尺度 时空演变 影响因素 浙江省 

分 类 号：X820.2[环境科学与工程—环境工程]