基于系统思维的颠覆性技术弱信号分析理论研究  

Theoretical Research on the Weak Signal Analysis of Disruptive Technology Based on System Thinking

作　　者：唐虎林 苏成[1] 李旺雨 Tang Hulin;Su Cheng;Li Wangyu(Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China,Beijing 100038)

机构地区：[1]中国科学技术信息研究所,北京100038

出　　处：《情报学报》2025年第4期398-413,共16页Journal of the China Society for Scientific and Technical Information

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目“面向颠覆性技术早期识别的弱信号监测体系设计与应用研究”(22BTQ067)。

摘　　要：随着新一轮科技革命和产业变革在全球范围内加速推进,颠覆性技术的加速涌现已经成为当今社会的一个普遍趋势。颠覆性技术弱信号具有碎片化、模糊性和表现形式多样等特点,这给理解、分析和利用颠覆性技术弱信号带来了极大的挑战。系统思维提供了一种全面、整体的视角,为深入探究颠覆性技术弱信号的本质和规律提供了可能。本研究基于系统思维的研究理念,开展了颠覆性技术弱信号的理论探究,提出了颠覆性技术早期发展模型。该理论模型表明颠覆性技术在创新链的技术发展闭环中得到发展。其中,在颠覆性技术发展系统的内部要素中,概念验证的概念得到了延伸;在概念验证中,方法技术等的创新效果得以揭示,技术价值得以验证,并向外部环境要素释放重要信号;在弱信号的探测过程中,应当重点关注指示具备开创性创新成果的弱信号。该模型为基于弱信号的颠覆性技术早期识别提供了理论支撑。With the rapid advancement of scientific and technological revolution as well as industrial transformation,the accelerated emergence of disruptive technologies has become a general trend.The weak signals of disruptive technologies are characterized by fragmentation,ambiguity,and various forms of manifestation,posing significant challenges to understanding,analyzing,and utilizing them.Systems thinking provides a comprehensive and holistic perspective,offering the possibility of conducting an in-depth exploration of the nature and laws of the weak signal of disruptive technologies.Based on the concept of systems thinking,this study conducts a theoretical investigation of the weak signal of disruptive technologies and proposes a model for the early-stage development of disruptive technologies.The theoretical model suggests that disruptive technologies are developed in the closed-loop of technological development in the innovation chain,in which the proof-of-concept is extended in the internal elements of the development system of disruptive technologies;the effects of innovations such as methodology and technology are revealed in the proof-of-concept,the value of the technology is verified,and important signals are released to the external environmental elements;in the process of detecting weak signals,the focus should be on indicating weak signals with groundbreaking innovations.The model provides theoretical support for the early identification of disruptive technologies based on weak signals.

关 键 词：颠覆性技术 弱信号 系统思维 早期识别 

分 类 号：F273.1[经济管理—企业管理]