基于智库双螺旋法的决策支持系统理念与构建路径研究  

Research on the Concept and Construction Path of Decision Support System Based on Think Tank Double Helix Methodology

作　　者：陈伟 徐静雯[2,4] 刘清 潘教峰[1,5] Chen Wei;Xu Jingwen;Liu Qing;Pan Jiaofeng(Institutes of Science and Development,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100190;National Science Library(Wuhan),Chinese Academy of Sciences,Wuhan 430071;Hubei Key Laboratory of Big Data in Science and Technology,Wuhan 430071;Department of Information Resources Management,School of Economics and Management,University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100190;School of Public Policy and Management,University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049)

机构地区：[1]中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院,北京100190 [2]中国科学院武汉文献情报中心,武汉430071 [3]科技大数据湖北省重点实验室,武汉430071 [4]中国科学院大学经济与管理学院信息资源管理系,北京100190 [5]中国科学院大学公共政策与管理学院,北京100049

出　　处：《智库理论与实践》2025年第2期45-54,共10页Think Tank:Theory & Practice

基　　金：新一代人工智能国家科技重大专项(项目编号:2022ZD0116407);中国科学院战略性先导科技专项“煤炭清洁燃烧与低碳利用”课题“战略研究与专项总体”(项目编号:XDA29010500);国家自然科学基金专项项目“中国基础研究战略情报合作网络可持续运行机制研究——基于学术共同体自发共建的模式”(项目编号:L2324131)研究成果之一。

摘　　要：[目的/意义]面对当前的决策需求态势和复杂环境,智库如何利用大数据和人工智能等新方法、新技术,为决策者提供科学有效的决策支持是一个重要的研究课题。[方法/过程]本文基于智库双螺旋法外循环和内循环两个体系思想的指导,提出决策支持系统理念,研究建立决策问题集合与现实方案选项的逻辑映射框架,并面向国家碳达峰、碳中和重大战略需求,利用大数据、人工智能等新一代信息技术,开展了双碳科技发展态势感知决策支持系统构建路径研究。[结果/结论]决策支持系统将向着更加智能化、个性化的方向发展,满足决策新需求。在数据方面,需要提升其同时存储并处理大量多源异构数据的能力。在实时性方面,需要提升其处理实时数据和信息的能力以支撑实时决策。在灵活性方面,需要增加更多定制化功能模块以实现个性化决策。在智能化方面,需要融合领域专业大模型、自主推理人工智能体、多模态知识挖掘及人机协同交互技术,通过数据驱动与算法优化,构建自主学习与自适应进化增强系统,实现决策支持方案从感知到评估全流程的动态优化,有效提高决策效率和决策精准度。[Purpose/Significance]In the face of the current decision-making demand dynamics and complex environment,how think tanks can utilize new methods and technologies such as big data and artificial intelligence to provide decision makers with scientific and effective decision support is an important research topic.[Method/Process]This study puts forward the concept of decision support system based on the guidance of the think tank double helix approach of outer loop and inner loop,and researches the establishment of the logical mapping framework for decision-making problems and the options of realistic programs.Then based on the national carbon peak and carbon neutrality’s major strategic needs,this study carries out research on the construction path of a dual-carbon science and technology development-based situational awareness decision support system by utilizing a new generation of information technologies such as big data and artificial intelligence.Finally,this study proposes the future development outlook of the decision support system.[Result/Conclusion]The decision support system will integrate advanced technologies,evolve towards a more intelligent and personalized direction,and address the emerging needs of decision-making.In terms of data,it is necessary to improve its ability to store and process a large number of multi-source heterogeneous data at the same time.In terms of real-time performance,it is necessary to improve its ability to process real-time data and information to support real-time decision-making.In terms of flexibility,more customized functional modules need to be added to achieve personalized decision-making.In terms of intelligence enhancement,it is necessary to integrate domain-specific large models,autonomous reasoning AI agents,multimodal knowledge mining,and human-machine synergistic interaction technologies.Through data-driven mechanisms and algorithm optimization,a self-learning and adaptively evolving augmented system can be constructed,enabling dynamic optimization of decision-

关 键 词：智库双螺旋法 决策支持系统 过程融合法 逻辑层次法 “双碳”科技 态势感知 

分 类 号：C932[经济管理—管理学] C934[自动化与计算机技术—计算机软件与理论] TP31[自动化与计算机技术—计算机科学与技术]